13 Sportsbetting myths – true or false?

Like pretty much all popular activities that deal with money and human emotions, sportsbetting will always determine superstitions and myths which eventually become guidelines for certain punters. There are a lot of cliches that over time have become accepted as rules by most sport bettors, so in this article we`ll take a look at some of the most common sportsbetting myths to determine whether they are true or false, and why.

1. Don`t bet on first place against the last place.

A common misconception, it comes from the fact that punters expect these kind of matches to be “sure bets”. Obviously, the odds are low and there will be surprises, so when it happens it has a higher impact on the bettor than other losses. Verdict: FALSE.

2. First couple of rounds in leagues are dangerous

Not to be said that you can`t win in the first rounds of leagues, or that the number of surprises is necessarily higher – however, you are exposing yourself to a higher degree of risk because you can not have the absolute best information – and that`s not intelligent betting. Verdict: TRUE.

3. You can`t make profit betting on favorites

While it`s totally true that the value usually lies on the underdog and that the favorites have artificially lowered odds, a punter can surely find opportunities on favorites and make a profit betting on them. Additionally, bettors nowadays are getting smarter and smarter, so it`s not unusual to see odds on big favorites rising. Me, I`m not a big fan of heavy favorites, but this myth is false (like most “you won`t win like this / you will win like that” myths). Verdict: FALSE.

4. Don`t bet on teams that have no motivation

I just love this myth, as it determines situations in which you get amazing prices. This superstition comes from the fact that punters always want their teams to be 100% determined and to suffer more than them if the bet loses. Of course there are different situations and many times it`s true you should stay away, but there are a lot of cases in which unmotivated teams get amazing odds and they will win the game because they want to, and because they can. “Oh, they need a win, they will win / they don`t need a win, they won`t win” is FALSE.

5. You can`t win using “easy money”

Easy money means betting big stakes on very low odds. This is very similar to the No.3 point – while it`s a very risky method, it`s not impossible to win as long as you inform yourself as good as possible and not use your whole balance to bet on a game. Verdict: FALSE.

6. European matches affect league matches

In today`s football, fitness is often the difference between winning and losing. It`s well documented that teams with european duties perform worse domestically than similar teams without european duties. Whether you`re on the back of an European game or you have one coming up, you hold a higher risk of being upset in the league. Verdict: TRUE.

7. Bookmakers fix matches

Objectively speaking this is probably the biggest misconception about sports betting, and there are two big, clear cut reasons for that. Firstly, bookmakers have no reason to fix matches – they are the biggest losers. If you somehow wrap your head around it and are left with the opinion that they will actually win trough a fix, remember this: the key to a successful betting company is integrity, and that`s a fact. Even a rumor about a sportsbook fixing a match would likely ruin that bookie forever. Verdict: FALSE.

8. Bookies want to rip you off

A common myth, but dead wrong. Bookies will be slightly better off if Arsenal loses to Stoke, but it`s not a must. The money comes from the payout percentage, the “juice”. A tight match should have odds 2.00 – 2.00, but at 1.93 – 1.93 the bookie will always win, regardless of the outcome. When odds go down, it`s because of the bets placed. Verdict: FALSE.

9. Fixed matches mania

Yes, some matches are fixed. However, if you`re a guy that`s shouting “fix” everytime a player loses from 6-4 5-3 up in tennis, you are just a sore loser. There are punters who believe 50% of their losses are fixed matches, as the bet does not go according to plan (heavy favorite loses, sometimes after leading or in the last minute). Take a chill pill, things like these happen in sports, and you probably are suspecting the wrong games anyway, as fixed matches are not carried out to blatantly produce suspicions – and surely not settled in the last second or from match point down. Verdict: FALSE.

10. I am unlucky / This can only happen to me

Cut the crap – no, you are not. Luck has nothing to do with professional betting, and you will find that over time “luck” and “unluck” will balance eachother out. Trust me, I`ve had my share of epic bad luck, but we tend to remember only the unlucky moments, and not the good luck. I won`t deny that there might be 1% of bettors that probably can`t get a break and might need 100 years for their luck to even out, but most likely that is not you. Verdict: FALSE.

11. I`m scared to bet on odds that are going up

The mentality is simple, punters feel that the bookies “must know something”. However, in 90% of the cases lines are moved by other punters, not the bookies. There can be situations and situations, but if you make a proper analysis and inform yourself, you should actually be thrilled that the odds are going up. Verdict: FALSE

12. Betting systems will make you money / betting systems will ruin you

Both approaches are wrong. While it`s true that there is not (and never will be) a guaranteed system to win in betting, every punter can forge his own destiny. Example: Kelly Criteria won`t guarantee you money, but you surely stand a chance to win win using it. Verdict: FALSE.

13. Smart punters bet on singles

While I never discard any betting method and I think that money can be made betting on accumulators, the math is simple – singles give you the best chance of winning. When you bet multiple events you lose more and more value (the bookie “juice” multiplies) while also decreasing your chances to win. See Singles vs. Combos. Verdict: TRUE.