Ungur – Dimitrov

Adrian Ungur will take on Grigor Dimitrov on clay in the ATP Istanbul second round as a huge underdog, but the 1.10 odds on Dimitrov to win seem may prove to be dangerous to bet on.

Adrian Ungur got a Wildcard last week at his Nastase Tiriac home tournament, but came to Bucharest in very poor form, winning just 2 of 8 matches this year – despite playing against low level opponents. To my surprise, he played a very good match in the first round against Pella. He lost 5-7 2-6, but the match was closer than the score suggests. There were a lot of close games and Ungur played at a really good level against an excellent player.

Having listened to him after the loss in Bucharest, Ungur looked fired up to turn his season around and declared himself confident for the European clay court season, also stating that he is finally 100% healthy – as injuries troubled him a bit this year. He backed up those statements by having a very good week so far in Istanbul. Ungur defeated Moryia 2-1 and Maximo Gonzalez 2-0 in the qualies before routing Krajinovic 6-3 6-3 in the first round. The Romanian is reaching his best level right now and his best level is pretty high – Ungur is a smart aggressive risk taker and can paint the lines on his day. He manages to play at his best one or two weeks per year, on clay and this seems to be one of those weeks.

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Dimitrov is on the back of a second round exit in Monte Carlo, losing pretty clearly to Gilles Simon after defeating Krajinovic in the first round. The Bulgarian is having a rather mediocre season so far, posting a 15-8 win – loss record. It`s obviously not bad, but more was expected out of him. Grigor seems unable to get to that next level and actually he is playing worse than a couple of years ago. He looks unable to stay in control for a whole match, makes too many unforced errors at times and as a result he has almost dropped out of the Top 30. This will be Dimitrov first match of the tournament, as he had a bye in the first round.

The two players never met before on tour, which was to be expected considering that they usually play at different levels. Dimitrov is obviously in a whole other class than Ungur, but the Romanian will be favored by the red clay in Istanbul – it is his best surface, while Dimitrov prefers hard courts.

Even if Ungur is barely a Top 200 player right now, I can see him putting on a good performance here against a shaky Dimitrov. The Bulgarian is not quite in his top form this year and he`s not the biggest fan on clay. We can also safely assume that he will not be at his best in his first match in a small tournament like Istanbul. It`s a routine warm up clash for him, while for Ungur it is the match of the season and one of the biggest of his career.

When at his best, Ungur can go toe to toe with pretty much anyone on clay, he even challenged Federer in Roland Garros a few years ago. Sure, he is unlikely to keep a top level for the whole match against Dimitrov, but he can really push the Bulgarian for at least a set. He did it against Pella last week in Bucharest and Pella is a more dangerous opponent than Dimitrov on clay at the current moment, particularly in small tournaments like these.

Dimitrov is not exactly blowing opponents out this year. From his 23 matches in 2016, only 2 saw less than 19 games, which is the total game line set for this clash. As such, my tip here is over 19 games to be played and I would not be shocked if Ungur snatches a set. Expect some rustiness from Dimitrov and some great shot making from Ungur for at least a set. Prediction: Adrian Ungur – Grigor Dimitrov 3-6 7-6 2-6.

Pick: over 19 games
Odds: 1.92 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 7.36
Event date: 27 April