Ajax – Man United

Stockholm will host the 2017 Europa League final between Ajax Amsterdam and Manchester United, with the English side currently rated as a 1.90 odds favorite to win in regular time.

Ajax did brilliantly to reach the final, knocking out teams like Copenhagen, Schalke or Lyon in the previous rounds. They were close to elimination in both the quarters and the semis, but Ajax showed great character to pull trough. Nevertheless, Ajax enters the final after just losing the domestic title to Feyenoord, so it remains to be seen if that will impact their morale.

Manchester United has been shaky so far in the Europa League, but managed to scrape by, claiming narrow wins in low scoring matches against the likes of Celta Vigo, Anderlecht and Rostov. Mourinho’s men haven`t been impressive, but their experience and superior quality allowed them to get those close wins and now they will be confident of winning the final and playing Champions League football next year. United is on the back of a 2-0 win over Crystal Palace, their first win in 5 matches in all competitions, and they got the victory despite fielding the reserves.

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Team news & lineups:

Ajax will be without Viergever and Sinkgraven. Manchester United will have to do without Ibrahimovic, Young, Rojo, Shaw, and Bailly, while Fellaini and Smalling are doubtful.

Ajax Amsterdam: Onana – Veltman, Sanchez, Ligt, Riedewald – Klaassen, Schone, Ziyech – Younes, Dolberg, Traore

Manchester United: Romero – Valencia, Jones, Blind, Darmian – Fellaini, Pogba – Lingard, Mkhitaryan, Mata – Rashford

United’s last 7 games in the Europa League all finished with under 2,5 goals. What`s more, 11 of their last 12 games in all competitions ended with under 2,5 goals (!!). The Devils are playing ugly, pragmatic football and knowing Mourinho, United is likely to have the same approach in such a big match like the Europa League final.

Ajax is a much more offensive minded team than United and they can definitely score goals, but they might be more cautious in the final. Plus, Ajax hasn`t been exactly a high scoring team so far in the Europa League. Just 3 of Ajax’s 8 matches in the KO stage ended with over 2.5 goals, and two of them were in the semifinals against Lyon – with Lyon being one of the most attacking minded teams in Europe this season.

Also, Ajax will probably have to play United’s game, as the English side is the better team and will likely be the one which imposes the rhythm of the game – a slow, ugly and pragmatic rhythm, as they have played in the last few months.

Looking at Manchester United’s style of play, at the results these teams had in Europe this year and also taking into account the absence of Ibrahimovic, this has all the makings of a low scoring game. United does miss players in defense, but that is nothing new, and they have defended very well so far no matter who played in the back 4.

I can see a slow paced final with neither team willing to take many risks in such an important match. My tip is under 2,5 goals to be scored, 0-0 or 1-1 would be my call if I had to pick an outcome. Prediction: Ajax – Manchester United 1-1 (1-2 extra time).

Pick: under 2,5 goals
Odds: 1.76 @ 1xBet
Stake: 7
Possible profit: 5.32
Event date: 24 May