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Today’s bet of Roland Garros will be, as I like to call it, a banker, rather than a huge value bet. I mean this because I really can’t imagine any other outcome to this match then the selected pick, despite the odds being a little short – and as you know, I tend to find bigger value in the odds.
Both players are clay-court experts, both with positive results on clay courts in their careers. Bedene has a 275-109 clay record, while Cuevas is 440-217. Bedene is ranked 66th in the world and 2018 brought him a nice clay record of 12 wins and 6 losses, including a final in Buenos Aires, a SF in Budapest, a QF in Rio and a R16 in Rome Masters. Cuevas on the other hand, ranked 75th, started rather poorly for his standards, having a 7 wins and 7 losses record, including a QF in Rio, SF in Sao Paulo and R16 in Madrid Masters.
It will be the first meeting between Bedene and Cuevas at any level.
Out of the 17 finished clay matches this year, Bedene played 9 3-setters (matches 2 out of 3, rather than 3 out of 5 as in Roland Garros), while Cuevas played 7/14 matches in a deciding set. We can see that both “like” to play longer matches and have some consistency issues during a match.
During the last 6 years of Cuevas in Roland Garros he played 14 matches and 9 matches went over 3.5 sets. Bedene played 6 matches during the last 3 years in Roland garros and he had over 3.5 sets in 5 of them, only 3-0 loss was to Djokovic.
We can see that these two players struggle to win in a comfortable manner and have to play longer matches during this Slam tournament.
I would be really surprised to see a straight set win from either player. To be honest, I don’t even know who has the bigger chances of winning this clash. So I recommend odds 1.48 on over 3.5 sets via Betsson or Betsafe! 8 units bet.
Pick: over 3,5 sets
Odds: 1.48 @ Betsafe
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 3.84
Event date: 29 May
