Sevastova – Bogdan

Top seed Anastasija Sevastova will meet local favorite Ana Bogdan in the quarterfinals at the BRD Bucharest Open, played on red clay.

Anastasija Sevastova entered Bucharest in very good form, having won the title at Mallorca prior to a second round exit at Wimbledon. The Latvian, a very good clay court player, continued on the same note here in Bucharest, defeating Cepelova and Kovinic in straight sets, losing a total of just 10 games and playing good, consistent tennis.

The 108th ranked Ana Bogdan was not expected to make much noise at this tournament, despite playing at home. However, Bogdan was able to defeat Sorana Cirstea in the first round mainly due to Cirstea making a ton of errors, and she backed that up with a a 6-4 7-5 win against Cagla Buyukakcay in the second round. It was a borderline heroic performance from Bogdan, who injured her knee midway through the second set but fought and pulled off a big win for her.

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The two players have never met before on tour. Both like clay courts, so the surface will not give anyone an advantage here.

Bogdan’s knee injury on Wednesday looked pretty serious and there were questionmarks about her ability to continue the tournament, but it seems it was just a sprain. Bogdan stated she will be fit for the quarterfinal, but it`s virtually impossible for that sprain not to leave marks – especially when you are set to be involved in the match of your life, against a Top 20 player.

Credit to the Romanian for reaching this stage and it might be a start in her attempt to finally confirm her excellent results in juniors – as she failed to do that so far. But now she is set to meet a totally different level of opposition compared to what she faced in the early rounds, and even if she were fully healthy it would be a big task for her to challenge Sevastova.

The Latvian has been in good form this week and she proved in the past that she`s not bothered playing on clay here in Bucharest right after Wimbledon – as she managed to reach the final last year. With Bogdan nursing a knee injury and being the clearly inferior player, I struggle to see any premise for an upset here.

Bogdan’s fairy tale should end here, and I wouldn`t be surprised if the solid Sevastova hands her a lesson. My pick is Sevastova to cover the 1,5 set handicap and win in straight sets. I definitely think there is serious value on this bet, as I consider the fair odds to be around 1.50 rather than 1.70 – 1.75. Prediction: Anastasija Sevastova – Ana Bogdan 6-3 6-2.

Pick: Sevastova -1,5 set handicap
Odds: 1.76 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 6.08
Event date: 21 July