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Each team played a good game in the previous round, but now APOEL Nicosia and Ajax will have to go for the win if they want to have any chance of progressing.
APOEL lost more than honorable to Barcelona in the previous matchday … even though Barcelona rested some players and was not really interested, a 0-1 defeat was a good result for the Cypriots. Apoel is a team who can play top class defensive football but they are not so good in attack, specially against the big boys. Hosts are in good form, dominating the Cyprus league (4 wins, 1 draw, 0 losses) … had derby with AEL on Saturday which ended 0-0 at home. Djebour and Papazoglou are question marks for tis game.
Ajax just defeated Breda 5-2 in the weekend and is playing superb football. Ajax won 3 consecutive games in Eredivisie and maybe the most impressive result was that 1-1 draw at home vs. PSG two weeks ago. Even is they are generally not the greatest away team, Ajax will feel they have the best probability for a win today. Fischer is the only absentee for the Dutch team.
Both teams need a win to stand chances to qualify in the KO stage, but a draw would not be surprising … it usually happens when two sides want the three points. My analysis is that APOEL and Ajax will try to play positive football, to go for the win … but as time runs out, both teams will probably find themselves satisfied with a draw, thinking that a loss would badly jeopardize their chances for the 3rd place … the realistic objective. Tight match here and my tip will be a draw. I would not be shocked if Ajax wins … but the draw is more likely in my opinion and my analysis suggests it`s the match with the highest probability of a draw in Champions League today (around 40%). Correct score predicition: APOEL Nicosia – Ajax 1-1.
Pick: Draw
Odds: 3.40 @ Bet365
Stake: 5
Possible profit: 12
Event date: 30 September
