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New Zealand will travel to Argentina for the 5th round of the Rugby Championship, having already won the competition after last round’s win against South Africa.
The Pumas are having a good tournament, even if they won a single game so far. They lost in the last second against South Africa, beat the Springboks in Argentina, posed the biggest challange New Zealand faced this year and finally lost by 16 points in Australia – but only because a horrific 0-21 start in the first 10 minutes of the game. Two rounds ago the Pumas were brilliant in New Zealand, even though they ended up losing by 35 points, they went toe to toe with the All Blacks for 50 minutes, with Argentina trailing by just 2 points at that time. They eventually collapsed phisically, but the 35 point loss was way too harsh, New Zealand also had plenty of luck and favorable calls to score so much in the last 30 minutes.
A legitimate argument can be made that this New Zealand team is the best rugby side ever, as they are simply playing incredible and blowing out everybody in their path – beating the best teams in the world by 30 points on a regular basis and simply showing zero weaknesses. Last round it was another emphatic 28 point win over South Africa, a win which handed New Zealand the Rugby Championship with two rounds to go. As a result, the visitors will rotate the starting lineup and the bench a bit for this match in Argentina.
Bet on Argentina vs. New Zealand and claim your 100% (100 Eur) bonus at Ohmbet!Team news & lineups:
Argentina will make 3 changes to the lineup that lost in Australia. They will be again without Ayerza, Bosch and Imhoff, all key absences. New Zealand will make 5 changes to the lineup that beat South Africa, but also made a lot of changes on the bench. Coach Hansen stated that the objective is to give youngsters the chance to grow and rest some guys for the future tests, while also maintaining a high level of performance.
Argentina: 15 Joaquín Tuculet, 14 Santiago Cordero, 13 Matías Moroni, 12 Santiago González Iglesias, 11 Ramiro Moyano, 10 Nicolás Sánchez, 9 Martín Landajo (c), 8 Facundo Isa, 7 Javier Ortega Desio, 6 Pablo Matera, 5 Matías Alemanno, 4 Guido Petti, 3 Ramiro Herrera, 2 Agustín Creevy, 1 Nahuel Tetaz Chaparro
New Zealand: 15 Ben Smith, 14 Israel Dagg, 13 Anton Lienert-Brown, 12 Ryan Crotty, 11 Julian Savea, 10 Beauden Barrett, 9 TJ Perenara, 8 Kieran Read (c), 7 Ardie Savea, 6 Liam Squire, 5 Brodie Retallick, 4 Patrick Tuipulotu, 3 Owen Franks, 2 Dane Coles, 1 Joe Moody
Argentina has never defeated New Zealand in rugby union and the Pumas are desperately trying to get over that final hurdle. One interesting aspect is that New Zealand has always been really good in Argentina, normally a very tough place to visit. Argentina did play a couple of close home games with the All Blacks, but generally New Zealand has blown them out in South America – with Argentina being more competitive on neutral ground or in New Zealand.
Argentina was tired two weeks ago against Australia after putting in a ton of effort just one week before, in New Zealand. With a two week break, the Pumas should be ready to give it their all yet again against the All Blacks and will feel they have a shot at home, considering that New Zealand already won the Rugby Championship.
Even though the All Blacks have always done well in Argentina, you have to feel that it will be a difficult road game for them, especially if we think that they will miss a few key players and that they can’t be 100% motivated after already winning the title. Argentina matched New Zealand in every department for 50 minutes three weeks ago. They proved they can do it and now the circumstances are so much more favorable for them. That 33-0 stretch by New Zealand in the last 30 minutes is highly unlikely to happen in the current circumstances.
With a lot of changes in New Zealand’s scrum, Argentina should dominate in that department. Scrummage time has always been Argentina’s number 1 weapon and against this almost experimental New Zealand scrum they have a great chance to milk territory and penalties. The boot of Nicolas Sanchez has been brilliant in this tournament, so those penalties will likely be converted, keeping Argentina within touching distance.
New Zealand will win, they have simply taken rugby to another level, but Argentina will be much more fired up for the game and I feel they can keep it close by making the game physical. The handicap line is very high at 20,5 points, so I will back the Pumas to cover this point spread. They can lose by less than 20 even if New Zealand scores 3 or 4 more tries, so the bet seems pretty solid to me. I`m actually predicting a 1-4 score in tries for New Zealand and them winning by just 13 points (Argentina will almost surely kick more penalties).
The danger, like always with the Pumas, is them fading away late on. But even if that happens, the handicap should be safe if they are in touching distance around the 60th minute or so. Plus, the two week break will help with fitness. Also, Argentina has a much improved bench for this game, while New Zealand has a weakened one, so I don’t expect the All Blacks substitutes to dominate like in the previous meeting.
My tip is Argentina + 20,5 points, but I can’t bet more than 7 units against the All Blacks, they are just too good – even if I don’t think they will be the same team with all the changes and with the title already secured. Prediction: Argentina – New Zealand 19 – 32.
Pick: Argentina +20,5
Odds: 1.85 @ SlBet
Stake: 7
Possible profit: 5.95
Event date: 1 October
