Argentina – Tonga

Argentina will look to virtually secure qualification to the Rugby World quarter finals with a win over Tonga, while the Pacific side is aiming to improve the overall poor impression they left in the tournament so far.

Argentina entered the RWC with a couple of key injuries and it didn`t look like it will be their year, but the Pumas were excellent in the first two matches. Argentina lost by only 10 points to New Zealand, leading at half time and pushing the All Blacks to their limits. That performance was followed by a magnificent display in a dominating 54-9 win over a decent Georgia team – which previously beat Tonga 17-10.

The Pacific side was expected to get two wins in this group, but that became an impossible task once they lost their opener. Tonga played better in the second match against Namibia, but still far from impressive. The first half was good, but Tonga was dominated by Namibia in the second half and conceded three tries in the 35-21 win – a horrible sign coming into this match, as Argentina played some brilliant offensive rugby so far.

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Team news & lineups:

Argentina will make 7 changes to the team that murdered Georgia, while Tonga will make 6 changes compared to the last match, also welcoming back captain Nili Latu.

Argentina: 15 Joaquin Tuculet, 14 Santiago Cordero, 13 Matias Moroni, 12 Jeronimo De La Fuente, 11 Juan Imhoff, 10 Nicolas Sánchez, 9 Martín Landajo, 8 Leonardo Senatore, 7 Juan Martín Fernández Lobbe, 6 Pablo Matera, 5 Tomás Lavanini, 4 Guido Petti, 3 Ramiro Herrera, 2 Agustín Creevy (c), 1 Marcos Ayerza.

Tonga: 15 Vungakoto Lilo, 14 Telusa Veainu, 13 Siale Piutau, 12 Sione Piukala, 11 Fetu’u Vainikolo, 10 Kurt Morath, 9 Sonatane Takulua, 8 Viliami Ma’afu, 7 Nili Latu (c), 6 Sione Kalamafoni, 5 Joseph Tuineau, 4 Tukulua Lokotui, 3 Halani ‘Aulika, 2 Elvis Taione, 1 Soane Tonga’uiha.

Tonga really doesn`t look good in this Rugby World Cup, they seem much worse than 4 years ago, when they shocked France in a massive upset. The biggest problem for the Pacific side will be its very shaky defense, which was exposed by Namibia both at the breakdown and on the wings. Tonga can play entertaining Rugby on a good day, but even then they can be very naive and would be murdered on the wide game by the Pumas. Their scrum can`t compete either, while the maul is a disaster. With Argentina pumping on all cylinders and putting 54 past Georgia, it`s hard to see Tonga staying within 20 points today.

The handicap line is not too high at about 19 points and I fully expect the Pumas to cover it. Tonga’s open style of Rugby will be a blessing for the in-form Argentinians, who should score at the very least 4 tries here and get the bonus point. My tip is Argentina to win and cover the 19,5 point spread. Prediction: Argentina – Tonga 39-11.

Pick: Argentina -18,5
Odds: 1.87 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 9
Possible profit: 7.83
Event date: 4 October