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Wembley will host the FA Cup final between Arsenal and Chelsea, with Chelsea rated as a 1.75 odds favorite to win in regular time by the bookmakers.
Arsenal missed Top 4 for the first time since Wenger took over the club, but the team has played well in the closing stages of the season. Wenger changed the system to a 3-4-3 and Arsenal has been on a roll since then, winning 5 matches in a row and 8 of the last 9. However, the Gunners have serious problems coming into this final, as they are dealing with an injury crisis in defense.
Chelsea has won the title en-fanfare, ending the season on a 7 match winning run in which they seemed to score goals at will. The Blues have been hands down the best team in the Premier League this season, they are in form and healthy, so they will surely be confident of winning the final at Wembley, despite Arsenal’s recent improvement.
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Arsenal has huge problems in defense ahead of this clash. The Gunners will definitely miss Koscielny and Gabriel, while Mustafi is highly doubtful and chances are he won`t play. Gibbs and Oxlade Chamberlain are slightly questionable, but should be available. As for Chelsea, their only absentee is Loftus-Cheek.
Arsenal: Ospina – Holding, Mertesacker (Mustafi), Monreal – Bellerin, Xhaka, Coquelin, Gibbs – Ozil, Sanchez – Giroud
Chelsea: Courtois – Azpilicueta, Cahill, Luiz – Moses, Kante, Matic, Alonso – Willian, Costa, Hazard
Arsenal`s 3-1 win against Everton over the weekend came at a huge cost, as Wenger might now be without his first three choices at center back. That becomes even more of a problem given Arsenal’s new system with 3 center defenders, which Wenger is unlikely to change in a final. And even if Wenger changes it, the defense has looked horrendous the last few times Arsenal played 4-2-3-1.
The Gunners might be forced to play Mertesacker from the start, with the German having played exactly 90 minutes of football this season. Always a slow player, he could be badly exposed by the pace of Hazard, Willian or Pedro, if he will indeed play.
Chelsea has been scoring for fun lately, averaging no less than 3.43 goals per game and normally they should be able to get at least one or two goals against this make shift Arsenal defense. On the other hand, Arsenal has also been scoring a lot recently (2 or more goals in each of their last 5 games) and Chelsea isn`t defending particularly well, so the Gunners are expected to have their own opportunities and should find the net themselves.
Stats and common sense both suggest there will be goals here. Odds for both teams to score are similar to odds on the over 2.5, and I think both to score is the safer bet, so that will be my tip – but due to Chelsea’s overall brilliance I won`t go higher than 7 units here (not that 7 units isn`t a serious stake). Prediction: Arsenal – Chelsea 1-2.
Pick: Both to score
Odds: 1.72 @ Bwin
Stake: 7
Possible profit: 5.04
Event date: 27 May
