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Barty – Sabalenka

Barty Sabalenka Fed Cup prediction

Ashleigh Barty will take on Aryna Sabalenka early on Sunday morning in the third match of the Fed Cup semifinals between Australia and Belarus. The tie is played on hard court in Australia, and the score is currently 1-1.

Barty entered this Fed Cup tie in fantastic form, having just won the mighty Premier Mandatory tournament in Miami three weeks ago. It has been a great season for Barty so far, as she broke into the WTA Top 10, and she carried that form right into this weekend. Barty defeated Azarenka 7-6 6-3 on Saturday morning to give Australia its first point of the tie.

Sabalenka hasn`t been playing particularly well this year. In fact, after winning the title in Shenzhen in the first tournament of the season, she didn`t do anything else of note and was rather disappointing. Sabalenka was also shaky on Saturday morning in the first match of this tie, needing three sets to defeat a past her prime Samantha Stosur (7-5 5-7 6-3). There were moments early in the third set when it seemed Sabalenka will lose control of that match.

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Sabalenka leads the H2H 2-1 (all meetings taking place last year on hard courts) and won the previous two meetings in straight sets. Both players are excellent on hard courts, so the surface won`t make a difference. The home crowd however should be an advantage for Barty, as Aussies always know how to push their favorites in Fed Cup and Davis Cup.

Sabalenka hasn`t been very good in the last few months, and she was rather disappointing in her first match with Stosur in this tie. She often struggled with Stosur`s forehand (so you`d think she`ll struggle with Barty`s forehand as well), made 15 double faults, and although she pulled off the win, there was always a feeling that she might screw it up and lose the match.

That was against an aging Stosur, and Stosur actually didn`t play that well, making a lot of unforced errors (the official stats say 28, but it sure looked like she made more than that – the fed cup website might be too quick to settle some errors as being “forced”).

Against Barty, Sabalenka will definitely to play much better if she is to have a chance, and it doesn`t look like she will be able to do it. She hasn`t done it against Stosur, and actually hasn`t done it in quite a while.

Barty is the better player and she`s clicking on all cylinders now, riding a 7 match winning streak (5 of them in straight sets) which includes wins over Kvitova or Pliskova. She played very well on Saturday morning against Azarenka.

Sabalenka will draw confidence from winning the previous two meetings in straight sets last year, and that is something to take into account. But the Belarusian was playing better back then, while Barty was not in this kind of form.

Everything points to Barty winning this, especially with the excited Aussie crows behind her, and odds around 1.40 actually seem a bit too high (I`d have priced her around 1.30). The price is dropping at the moment. My tip will be Barty to win. Prediction: Ashleigh Barty – Aryna Sabalenka 7-5 6-3.

Pick: Barty
Odds: 1.44 @ 1xBet
Stake: 9
Possible profit: 3.96
Event date: 21 April

About Rostick

Former bookie & water polo player. Rugby Union expert. - EDITOR INFO & STATS
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