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Aston Villa will aim to put on a solid display in preparation for the FA Cup final, while Burnley will try to leave the Premier League with their heads up and a good result.
Villa has been in great form over the last couple of months, but they suffered a horrible 1-6 defeat last week at the hands of Southampton. The shocking loss came at a bad time, as Villa is looking at the FA Cup final and they really don`t want to go to Wembley with a shattered team morale and in poor form – so a win and a good performance to go with it against Burnley is necessary for the hosts.
Burnley is already relegated, but they will be looking to get a point here in order to avoid the last place – they are tied with QPR, who plays at Leicester and is unlikely to win. Burnley has a better goal difference than QPR so technically a draw would probably suffice for avoiding the last position. The visitors are in decent shape lately, gaining 4 points over the last two rounds after a run of 6 matches in which they won a single point. The defense kept Burnley honorable, but their offense has been dreadful, with a single goal scored in the previous 8 games.
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Team news & lineups:
Kozak, Clark and Herd are out for Villa, with Richardson and Baker being questionable. There might be some rotation for the hosts, but nothing major. Burnley won`t be able to count on Long and Marney.
Aston Villa: Guzan – Hutton, Okore, Senderos, Bacuna – Cleverley, Delph – Cole, Grielish, Sinclair – Benteke
Burnley: Heaton – Trippier, Shackell, Duff, Mee – Arfield, Jones, Reid, Boyd – Barnes – Ings
After allowing 6 goals from Southampton, Aston Villa will surely be focused to improve the defensive performance and will try to keep a clean sheet – it should not be too hard with Burnley being one of the worst offensive sides in recent Premier League history. Look for Burnley to play their usual defensive game, looking for a 0-0 draw (unless maybe QPR goes ahead in Leicester), while Villa will try to keep posession and build attacks with patience, while focusing to avoid being caught on counters.
I do expect Villa to snatch a narrow win, but the safer bet seems to be on the under over market, especially if Sherwood decides to alter the lineup a bit – with the important offensive players like Agbonlahor or maybe even Benteke being the most likely to see some rest today. Burnley has 12 consecutive matches with under 2,5 goals and the circumstances today are favorable for that run to continue. All in all, my tip on this one is under 2,5 goals to be scored. Prediction: Aston Villa – Burnley 1-0.
Pick: under 2,5
Odds: 1.94 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 7.52
Event date: 24 May
