Astra – West Ham

Astra Giurgiu will meet West Ham United in the Europa League playoffs, after Astra knocked out West Ham in the same competition last year, 4-3 aggregate.

The hosts had a great season last year and won the title in Romania, but due to financial problems they are slowly disintegrating right now. The team lost 3 of their best 4 players (Gaman, De Amorim, Boldrin), while their top scorer and best player Alibec is injured. Manager Sumudica is also banned from attending matches due to a betting scandal and all these problems badly affected Astra. The team has a horrible start to the season, they lost 1-4 to Dinamo Bucharest at home, were totally outplayed by Copenhagen in the Champions League qualies (lucky to only lose 1-4 aggregate) and performed poorly overall.

West Ham knocked out Domzale in the previous round, losing 1-2 away in their first competitive match of the season before dominating at home to win 3-0. They lost their Premier League opener 1-2 at Chelsea, playing well and have a game against Bournemouth coming up on Sunday. Manager Bilic swore that his team is determined to reach the group stages this year and is fully focused on the Astra clash, but his actions betray him, as West Ham will field a weakened lineup in Romania.

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Astra team news: Astra continues to miss key striker Alibec, but they might have new signing Budescu ready to feature in this match. Budescu was Astra’s superstar in the first part of last season and contributed to them beating West Ham before being sold, but he had a horrible 2016 in China and is far from being at his best.

West Ham team news: West Ham will miss the likes of Payet, Ayew, Adrian, Creswell, Lanzini or Nordtveit, possibly other main guys as well. Still, it should be a stronger lineup than the youth squad that lost 1-2 in Romania last season.

Astra might have defeated West Ham 4-3 aggregate last season, but it was a different situation. The Romanians were much, much stronger and the tie was played earlier in the competition, which means West Ham was less prepared. According to Slaven Bilic, West Ham is also much more motivated to reach the Europa League group stages this year.

Astra is definitely far from impressive this season and probably doesn’t stand a chance in this tie against a reasonably motivated West Ham, but it wouldn`t be a shock if they get a draw at home.

This will be the match of the season for the hosts, while West Ham has to travel to Romania and misses a fair number of important players. West Ham is motivated for the tie, but they are not treating the first leg with particular focus. A draw with goals would probably satisfy them and they will treat the reverse leg more seriously.

I do think West Ham has the first chance, but discipline and effort could be enough for Astra to get a draw. It could well be the same story like against Copenhagen, a hard earned draw at home and an obliteration in the reverse leg on the road.

At the same time, I definitely don`t expect this poor, decimated Astra team to win today, even with West Ham not at their best – so backing the draw with insurance in case West Ham wins seems like a safe bet. My tip is a Draw on the West Ham win no bet market. Prediction: Astra Giurgiu – West Ham United 1-1.

Pick: Draw – West Ham win no bet
Odds: 1.65 @ Bwin
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 5.20
Event date: 18 August