Atl Madrid – Bayern

Atletico Madrid and Bayern Munich will square off in the Champions League semifinals, with the Spanish side being the host of the first leg.

Atletico Madrid is definitely one of the most in form sides in Europe right now. Riding a 5 match winning streak, Atleti will be boosted by their win over Barcelona in the quarterfinal – a double that surely prepared them perfectly for an opponent like Bayern, which plays a similar style to Barca. Atleti’s last 7 home games saw 6 wins and a draw that qualified them against PSV. They allowed a single goal in this timespan.

Bayern is playing some really good football lately, winning 3 consecutive matches in Germany with a 7-0 goal difference and winning 8 of the last 10 matches played overall (9 out of 10 if we include the extra time win over Juventus). However, the Germans did show light weaknesses at times, particularly in Champions League on the road. Bayern recorded 2-2 draws against both Juventus and Benfica away from home in the previous rounds and won just 2 of 5 UCL road games this season.

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Team news & lineups:

Both teams can field strong lineups in this clash. Godin and Tiago are unavailable for Atletico Madrid, while Bayern Munchen can’t count on Robben and Badstuber. Boateng is back from injury but Guardiola might decide to start Martinez instead of him.

Atletico Madrid: Oblak – Juanfran, Hernandez, Gimenez, Luis – Niguez, Gabi, Koke – Griezmann, Torres, Carrasco

Bayern Munich: Neuer – Lahm, Alaba, Martinez, Bernat – Vidal – Costa, Muller, Alcantara, Ribery – Lewandowski

This looks set to be a very close game, with a lot of tactics involved. Atletico will try to capitalize on home court advantage and keep a clean sheet, so we know that Simeone will not risk anything. I don`t think Bayern will be able to break them considering that they were not impressive away from home in Champions League this year. A low scoring draw seems to be on the cards.

Atletico proved time and time again this season that they can take on any team in the World and are legit contenders for winning the Champions League. Considering Atletico’s strength at home, their style and Bayern’s recent light struggles on the road in UCL, I don`t believe the hosts will lose this. A draw looks like the most probable result, but I would not be shocked if Atleti pulls off the win. My tip is a draw on the Atletico Madrid win no bet market (making the bet void if Atleti wins). Prediction: Atletico Madrid – Bayern Munich 0-0.

Pick: Draw – Atletico Madrid win no bet
Odds: 2.00 @ Bwin
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 8
Event date: 27 April