Australia – Argentina

Australia will host Argentina in Canberra, as both teams will look to claim their first victory in the 2017 Rugby Championship after failing to do so in the first three rounds.

Australia had a horrible season at domestic club level and the National Team seemed to suffer as well in the Summer tests, so many expected them to struggle in the Rugby Championship. Although inconsistent and a bit shaky at times, the Australians proved they still belong at an elite level. They lost 34-54 at home to the All Blacks in the first match, but ended that clash on a 28-0 run and went on to play terrific rugby next round in New Zealand, where they were minutes away from a brilliant victory (29-35). Their next match was last week at home against South Africa, where they failed to capitalize on a 10 point second half advantage and ended up barely hanging on to a 23-23 draw.

Much like Australia, Argentina had a poor season at club level with their franchise Jaguares (which is basically the National Team), and didn`t impress in the Summer tests. The Pumas seemed to be worse than in the last few years and indeed their first two matches against South Africa strengthened that claim, with Argentina losing by 22 and 18 points (each time failing to cover the spread). However, the Pumas pulled a vintage performance out of the hat last week in New Zealand, losing by only 15 points against the All Blacks and going toe to toe with them for 60 minutes.

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Team news & lineups:

Captain Stephen Moore continues to miss out for Australia. Argentina will make a number of changes to the lineup that played so well last week in New Zealand, and they will miss key guys Cordero, Herrera and Tuculet.

Australia: 15 Israel Folau, 14 Henry Speight, 13 Tevita Kuridrani, 12 Kurtley Beale, 11 Reece Hodge, 10 Bernard Foley (vc), 9 Will Genia (vc), 8 Sean McMahon, 7 Michael Hooper (c), 6 Ned Hanigan, 5 Adam Coleman, 4 Rob Simmons, 3 Sekope Kepu, 2 Tatafu Polota-Nau, 1 Scott Sio

Argentina: 15 Emiliano Boffelli, 14 Matias Moroni, 13 Matias Orlando, 12 Jeronimo de la Fuente, 11 Ramiro Moyano, 10 Nicolas Sanchez, 9 Martin Landajo, 8 Tomas Lezana, 7 Javier Ortega Desio, 6 Pablo Matera, 5 Matias Alemanno, 4 Guido Petti, 3 Nahuel tatez Chaparro, 2 Agustin Creevy, 1 Lucas Noguera

Last season Australia won both meetings against Argentina in the Rugby Championship, and did it pretty comfortably: by 16 and 12 points. The Wallabies won the last 4 meetings overall, each time by 12+ points.

Australia is looking reasonably good at the moment, although not great, and seemingly unable to play error-free for an entire match. Fortunately for them, Argentina can not do that either, despite their excellent performance last week in New Zealand. It must not be forgotten that before that match, Argentina was completely outplayed twice by South Africa, losing by 22 and 18 points.

That huge effort against New Zealand might actually be what dooms Argentina in this clash. Having to play New Zealand and Australia back to back on the road, with just one week break, is a big issue for a team known to often collapse physically at the end of matches.

Potentially tired and without a few key players, a fair case can be made that Argentina could have problems maintaining the same level for 80 minutes and I feel that this situation will be the difference maker in this clash.

Look for the Pumas to compete for most of the match and they should dominate the scrum, but Australia is strong enough to build a small lead in the first hour through their superior backs. After that, Argentina’s fitness could come into play, their poor discipline should get worse under fatigue and the Australians should put the match to bed.

My tip is Australia to cover the -13 (asian) handicap. Prediction: Australia – Argentina 36 – 18.

Pick: Australia -13
Odds: 1.93 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 7.44
Event date: 16 September