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Australia and Argentina will square off on Saturday in the second round of the 2019 Rugby Championship, which only consists of three rounds in a shortened edition this season due to the coming World Cup.
Australia lost 17-35 in South Africa last weekend, a very poor result against what was pretty much a “B” Springboks team. It`s true that Australia wasn`t at full strength either, but it was still a disappointing outcome and display. The Wallabies are going through difficult times, playing rather poorly last year (barely avoiding the wooden spoon in the Rugby Championship) and now going through some internal problems as well – particularly with the Folau scandal, as arguably their best player has been sacked by the Federation due to supposed homophobic beliefs.
Argentina was so close to getting their first ever win against the All Blacks last weekend, losing 16-20 in Buenos Aires after an excellent second half. Even though the All Blacks rested some players, Argentina played extremely well and confirmed yet again the progress made in the last year. It`s an exciting moment for Argentinian rugby, especially after their club franchise Jaguares had a magnificent season this Summer, reaching the Super Rugby final.
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Australia will field a stronger lineup than against South Africa, and this is almost their best starting XV barring injuries or suspensions (which are noteworthy, with Pocock and Folau out). Key No.10 Bernard Foley will be rested. Argentina will miss inspirational captain Agustin Creevy, but will grant starts to European based players Cordero and Isa, which will add a drop of quality. Overall there will be 5 changes to the team which lost against New Zealand last week.
Australia: 15 Kurtley Beale, 14 Reece Hodge, 13 Tevita Kuridrani, 12 Samu Kerevi, 11 Marika Koroibete, 10 Christian Lealiifano, 9 Will Genia, 8 Isi Naisarani, 7 Michael Hooper (c), 6 Lukhan Salakai-Loto, 5 Rory Arnold, 4 Izack Rodda, 3 Sekope Kepu, 2 Folau Fainga’a, 1 Scott Sio
Argentina: 15 Joaquín Tuculet, 14 Santiago Cordero, 13 Matías Moroni, 12 Jerónimo de la Fuente, 11 Ramiro Moyano, 10 Nicolás Sánchez, 9 Tomás Cubelli, 8 Facundo Isa, 7 Tomás Lezana, 6 Pablo Matera, 5 Tomás Lavanini, 4 Guido Petti, 3 Juan Figallo, 2 Julián Montoya, 1 Nahuel Tetaz Chaparro
Australia won 7 of the last 8 meetings, but Argentina managed to win 23-19 last year in Gold Coast. The Pumas almost won both Rugby Championship games against Australia in 2019, but blew a 24 point (!!) halftime lead in the second one, at home.
Argentina looks formidable right now, the team being in great form and the confidence being sky high. They will surely believe in their chances to get a second consecutive win in Australia, and the general public believes that as well.
The bookies opened with odds around 1.40 for Australia, but the price has now gone up to around 1.60. That seems to be a bit of an overreaction after last week`s games.
Yes, Argentina is the team in form, and Australia is struggling, but the Wallabies are still the better side overall, have more talent, and it`s not like they are in some deep crisis. They do miss a few key players, but Argentina will also have to do without their captain. In a way the situation right now is similar to the one last year in Argentina, when the Wallabies came back from 7-31 to win 45-34. This time the Wallabies have home court advantage.
One thing to consider is Argentina’s potential fatigue. This team is composed almost exclusively from Jaguares players, who have competed with no break for months. Just one week after the Super Rugby final, they had to take the field against the All Blacks. And now, another week later, they have to face Australia. Surely the game against the All Blacks, in which the Pumas put in a colossal effort, will add weight to some already tired legs.
Australia will be desperate for a win here to regain confidence and morale, and Argentina’s potential fatigue should help the more fresh Wallabies. Home court advantage will also be a key factor, maybe the deciding one.
Weather in Brisbane should be just fine, with temperatures of 22 ℃, medium humidity, no precipitations and low wind.
The Pumas deserve a lot of respect, but maybe not so much as the public is giving them. The opening odds of 1.40 for Australia seem closer to reality than the current 1.60 price, so I will back the Wallabies to get the win here in a competitive match. Prediction: Australia – Argentina 28 – 22.
Pick: Australia
Odds: 1.60 @ Unibet
Stake: 9
Possible profit: 5.40
Event date: 27 July
