Australia – Lithuania

Australia and Lithuania will meet in the 3rd Group stage match of the FIBA World Cup, held in Spain. The two sides are in a group with Slovenia, Angola, Mexico and South Korea, a top 3 finish looks very probably for both but the final placement will be key in the next stage, so this is a very important match for both teams.

Australia lost 80-90 to a very strong Slovenia side in the first match, being killed by Goran Dragic, but bounced back with a n 89-55 blow out of South Korea. Australia looks pretty good in this tournament despite missing Andrew Bogut – they have an amazing backcourt and this could be seen in their offensive performance, Australia scoring at least 8 points in both matches. With guards like Dante Exum and other NBA / top european players, you are set to produce some great basketball.

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Lithuania did not impress me too much in the first two games despite being heavy betting favorites, decent 13 points wins over Mexico (87-74) and Angola (75 -62) but both times the opponents held their own despite having obvious limitations and Lithuania needed a dominant 3rd quarter in each match to escape with the win. The Europeans are the exact opposite team compared to Australia – not the greatest backcourt, but a dominant frontcourt with Valanciunas, Motiejunas, Jankunas and the Lavrinovic brothers.

This clash of styles is set to create a very interesting matchup and my bet will be on a high scoring game, the over line is pretty decent I reckon. I can see both teams being deadly and unstoppable with their respective weapons (shooting – Australia, frontcourt play – Lithuania). Lithuania is the better team and should be dominant under the paint, but Ausralia played slightly better basketball and has the weapons to outplay Lithuania in the backcourt. There`s also the fact that Lithuania was shaky in offense in the last match vs. Angola, so It`s hard to believe they will put two poor offensive performances in a row. My tip is over 154 points to be score and the odds are dropping fast on the over line. We do depend a bit on the shooting percentage for Australia on this bet, but I doubt they will have an off night considering the matchup. Also overtime could happen in this tight match, so that`s always worth taking into consideration when betting on the under/over. Prediction: Australia – Lithuania 79-81.

Pick:over 154
Odds: 1.88 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 7.04
Event date: 2 September