Australia – New Zealand

Australia and New Zealand will square off in the opening round of the 2017 Rugby Championship, and the Wallabies will look to avoid getting embarrassed again by their rivals – who won all three direct meetings last year by an average margin of 27 points!

The Wallabies had a mediocre 2016, though they eventually finished 2nd in the Rugby Championship – albeit it was mostly because of South Africa’s ineptitude at the time. Unfortunately for Australia, they are now in an even worse state than last year. The hosts looked really poor in the Summer tests, losing to Scotland and barely beating Italy, both matches at home. The internal competition is in shambles and the Aussies will have their work cut out for them against the mighty All Blacks.

New Zealand had a historic season in 2016, and they put on arguably the most dominant showing ever in that year`s Rugby Championship, playing magnificent rugby and obliterating the competition – Australia included. Apparently they have slown down a little bit this year, having drawn the summer series against the British & Irish Lions, although it was still a good performance from the All Blacks in those tests and they were unlucky not to win the series against a very strong opponent.

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Team news & lineups:

Both sides will obviously field what they feel are their best available lineups, and there are no game changing absences for either team (All Blacks miss Kaino and Jordie Barrett, but they have plenty of options to replace them). The biggest news is that Damian Mckenzie has finally been handed a start for New Zealand after playing marvelous rugby at club level this year, and he could be a deciding factor at No.15 – especially as he is an accurate kicker, something which All Blacks lacked recently.

Australia: 15 Israel Folau, 14 Henry Speight, 13 Samu Kerevi, 12 Kurtley Beale, 11 Curtis Rona, 10 Bernard Foley, 9 Will Genia, 8 Sean McMahon, 7 Michael Hooper (c), 6 Ned Hanigan, 5 Adam Coleman, 4 Rory Arnold, 3 Allan Alaalatoa, 2 Stephen Moore, 1 Scott Sio

New Zealand: 15 Damian McKenzie, 14 Ben Smith, 13 Ryan Crotty, 12 Sonny Bill Williams, 11 Rieko Ioane, 10 Beauden Barrett, 9 Aaron Smith, 8 Kieran Read (c), 7 Sam Cane, 6 Liam Squire, 5 Samuel Whitelock, 4 Brodie Retallick, 3 Owen Franks, 2 Codie Taylor, 1 Joe Moody

Australia hosted New Zealand in the first match of the 2016 Rugby Championship as well, and the Wallabies were utterly destroyed 8-42 in that clash last year. It might not be quite the same result this time around, but there are not many arguments for Australia to do much better, as they seem and are weaker than last year.

This season at club level in the Super Rugby the Australian teams failed to beat the New Zealand teams in 26 meetings (!!!), and their rugby setup is in crisis right now. The National team suffers as a result of that, and their performances earlier in the year against Scotland or Italy clearly reflected Australia’s struggles.

Despite New Zealand looking a bit below their best in the June matches against the Lions, they are still and by far the team to beat in World Rugby, and another brilliant Rugby Championship could well be on the cards.

The All Blacks always have more success against Southern Hemisphere teams, it is easier for them to impose their expansive style of rugby against the likes of Australia than against Northern Hemisphere teams, which are more robust and defensive oriented. Before the Lions tests this June, they beat Samoa 78-0, just another proof of their abilities to handle Southern Hemisphere sides easier. It`s no surprise that New Zealand is riding a 5 game winning streak against Australia, all victories coming by 17+ points.

The Wallabies just don`t seem ready to take on New Zealand right now, frankly they are not good enough and not organized enough to do so. They also don`t have the style to frustrate New Zealand, as they play expansive rugby themselves, but they are obviously worse at doing it than the All Blacks, so they need something extra if they want to beat New Zealand with their own weapons – and they simply do not possess that X factor right now.

Australia will give New Zealand too many spaces and that will probably cost them. Expect the All Blacks to run them around, break their lines and score a fair number of fast paced tries – which, this time, should be converted by the excellent kicker McKenzie. Hopefully he will be selected to shoot at goal, which should be the case ahead of the unreliable Beauden Barrett (brilliant player, but can`t kick consistently), whose poor kicking cost New Zealand the series against the Lions, and regularly costs them between 2 and 10 points per match. The potential extra points from McKenzie will help the visitors as far as covering the handicap is concerned.

You have to feel the All Blacks have it in them to win this by 20+ points, and they should cover the 16,5 points handicap. The line is not as high as it might seem given the fact that New Zealand has the ability to score 20 points on you in less than 10 minutes when they get into a zone – and they also covered this line in each of the last 5 matches against the Wallabies.

My tip is All Blacks to cover the 16,5 point handicap. Prediction: Australia – New Zealand 13 – 35.

Pick: New Zealand -16,5
Odds: 1.97 @ 10Bet
Stake: 9
Possible profit: 8.73
Event date: 19 August