Australia – New Zealand

Brisbane will host the 3rd and final Bledisloe Cup test of the year between the Wallabies and the All Blacks on Saturday, with New Zealand having already won the Cup by beating Australia twice in the recent Rugby Championship. But, as always, the third test will still be played, and it will surely be played with plenty of intensity.

Australia is on the back of a second place finish in the Rugby Championship, a result which exceeded expectations. The Wallabies weren`t rated very highly before the tournament given the struggle of their domestic club teams, but they proved the NT still has the quality to compete at the highest level. Australia competed at a high level in all matches and even if there were some hiccups here and there, fact is they played consistently well and were clearly outplayed just one time (in the first round against New Zealand, 34-54).

The All Blacks won the Rugby Championship with 6 wins out of 6 matches and played brilliant rugby at times, particularly in the 57-0 drubbing they gave South Africa in Albany. However, the All Blacks weren`t quite as dominant as last year, a lot of that having to do with a few injuries to key players. They struggled in some matches, particularly at home against Australia (35 – 29, winning try in the last minutes) and two weeks ago in South Africa (25-24). Argentina also gave them a small scare in New Zealand, with the All Blacks pulling away in the last 20 minutes to win 39-22.

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Team news & lineups:

Australia will make just one change to the lineup that won by 17 points in Argentina two weeks ago. New Zealand will make two changes to the lineup that beat South Africa by 1 point in the last match, both of them because of injuries. Naholo comes in for Milner-Skudder, but most importantly Beauden Barrett will miss the game, being replaced by Sopoaga.

Australia: 15 Israel Folau, 14 Marika Koroibete, 13 Tevita Kuridrani, 12 Kurtley Beale, 11 Reece Hodge, 10 Bernard Foley, 9 Will Genia, 8 Sean McMahon, 7 Michael Hooper (c), 6 Jack Dempsey, 5 Adam Coleman, 4 Rob Simmons, 3 Sekope Kepu, 2 Tatafu Polota-Nau, 1 Scott Sio

New Zealand: 15 Damian McKenzie, 14 Waisake Naholo, 13 Ryan Crotty, 12 Sonny Bill Williams, 11 Rieko Ioane, 10 Lima Sopoaga, 9 Aaron Smith, 8 Kieran Read (c), 7 Sam Cane, 6 Liam Squire, 5 Scott Barrett, 4 Samuel Whitelock, 3 Nepo Laulala, 2 Dane Coles, 1 Kane Hames

The absence of Barrett will be massive for New Zealand, as the flamboyant playmaker is key to everything they do. Arguably the best player in the world, Barrett is instrumental to the way New Zealand plays, his speed, passing and penetrating ability creating the spaces the All Blacks need to create havoc on offense.

The All Blacks scored so many tries this year thanks to Barrett’s magic, be it cross kicks, behind the back passes, between the legs passes, or due to sheer speed. These tries wouldn`t have been scored otherwise. His brilliance and the attention he commanded from the defense allowed New Zealand to benefit from the space they need. It`s fair to expect Barrett’s absence to cost New Zealand somewhere between 5 and 14 points here.

Sopoaga is a good player, but he`s no Beauden Barrett, and he doesn`t fit the All Blacks style as well as Barrett. When he came on in the first half two weeks ago against South Africa, New Zealand (leading 7-0 at that time) clearly lost a gear and barely won the game.

The All Blacks were already missing a number of key players like Retallick, Moodie, Kaino, Ben Smith or Dagg (among others), and the two new injuries of Barrett and Milner-Skudder might just be too much. New Zealand were at their best this year when they were close to full health, but had problems when they missed too many key players – and today they are arguably more shorthanded than they have ever been recently.

The Australians played great against New Zealand in the recent Rugby Championship and have gone toe to toe with them in 3 of the 4 halves of rugby played. Australia was trailing the All Blacks 6-54 after 50 minutes in the opening RC game, but ended that one on a 28-0 run. Next up, in New Zealand, they almost won the game, losing by 6 points via a late Beauden Barrett try.

Look for a good game of rugby and New Zealand should still win, as they remain the best team in the World by far – but with all the injuries they have, particularly Barrett, this could be close. It`s possible that the All Blacks will kick more penalties as opposed to kicking for touch and going for tries, given that Sopoaga is worse than Barrett at creating tries, but is a better goal kicker. This is just speculation, but if that happens, it will be even more difficult for NZ to create a big margin.

The All Blacks also already won the Bledisloe Cup, so they might not push so much in the closing stages of the game (when they usually finish teams off), as important tests in Europe are coming up, and they don`t want any other injuries. We saw this last year, when in the 3rd Bledisloe Cup test New Zealand decided to kick the ball away in injury time despite being on the brink of scoring another try.

With the 5-14 points which I expect Barrett’s absence alone will cost New Zealand, I reckon this could be a one score game, and the handicap is within Australia’s grasp here. My tip will be the Wallabies to cover the 13,5 point spread. Handicap line is moving towards 12.5 (which I`d also take with 8-9 units), so you might want to bet early. Prediction: Australia – New Zealand 28 – 34.

Pick: Australia +13,5
Odds: 1.91 @ Bwin
Stake: 10
Possible profit: 9.10
Event date: 21 October