Australia – New Zealand

Australia New Zealand Rugby Championship 2018 preview

The 2018 Rugby Championship will kick off Saturday in Sydney with a meeting between classic rivals Australia and New Zealand, also counting as Game 1 out of 3 of the yearly Bledisloe Cup between the two teams.

Australia (second last year in the RC) will perhaps enter this year`s tournament with a bit more confidence than in the past couple of seasons. That is based on the slight improvement of the domestic club teams in Super Rugby, but also because Australia claimed a few big scalps in the last year. The biggest one was of course New Zealand back in Autumn last year, when Australia won 23-18, although that was kind of a meaningless test (as meaningless as a test can be in rugby). It was the 3rd Bledisloe Cup meeting, right after the Rugby Championship, with New Zealand having already won the Bledisloe Cup. The last time the Wallabies got together they played a 3 match series at home against Ireland in June, winning one and losing two.

New Zealand hasn`t lost a Rugby Championship match since 2015 and the All Blacks will look to keep that run going, as they will be again the massive favorites to win the tournament this season. The All Blacks have continued their dominance of World Rugby in the last year and a half, although they did seem to slow down a bit compared to how they played in 2016, when they were beating everybody by 30 points. Whilst remaining dominant, the All Blacks had a couple of close matches here and there, even losing that test against Australia in October last year. New Zealand is coming after a good three match series against France in June, when they won by 13, 35 and 41 points.

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Team news & lineups:

David Pocock will return for Australia after taking a one year sabatical, and he will create a formidable partnership with Michael Hooper at the breakdown (although Hooper is not fully fit). Unfortunately for Australia, they will miss both Kerevi and Kuridrani at the center positions, and their partnership has been one of the brightest spots in the squads recently. They will both be huge absences.

As for New Zealand, there are a few players missing here and there, either by coach`s choice, fatigue or injury, but it is barely noticeable considering the huge depth the All Blacks have. The key guys and the few irreplaceable players are all fit and ready to go.

Australia: 15 Israel Folau, 14 Dane Haylett-Petty, 13 Reece Hodge, 12 Kurtley Beale, 11 Marika Koroibete, 10 Bernard Foley, 9 Will Genia, 8 David Pocock, 7 Michael Hooper (c), 6 Lukhan Tui, 5 Adam Coleman, 4 Izack Rodda, 3 Sekope Kepu, 2 Tatafu Polota-Nau, 1 Tom Robertson

New Zealand: 15 Ben Smith, 14 Waisake Naholo, 13 Jack Goodhue, 12 Ryan Crotty, 11 Rieko Ioane, 10 Beauden Barrett, 9 Aaron Smith, 8 Kieran Read (c), 7 Sam Cane, 6 Liam Squire, 5 Samuel Whitelock, 4 Brodie Retallick, 3 Owen Franks, 2 Codie Taylor 1 Joe Moody

After losing 7 consecutive matches against New Zealand, 6 of them by more than 17 points, the Wallabies managed to claim a 23-18 win in a test last year, which was actually the second close game they played in a row against the All Blacks. That will give them confidence, but the Wallabies will also remember that they opened the Rugby Championship at home against New Zealand in the last two years, and they lost those games by 34 points (in 2016) and 20 points (in 2017).

Coach Michael Cheika himself stated that it`s always a daunting task to start the tournament against the All Blacks, as they always attack you right from the start, and it`s difficult to keep your ground early on, until you start finding your rhythm.

While Australia does indeed seem a bit improved this year, the improvement is rather negligible and must be put into perspective. Sure, they had a club team in the Super Rugby semifinals this year, but that was also due to Australian clubs playing in a much weaker conference. The National team might have gotten wins against New Zealand, Wales and Ireland in the last year, but they were also destroyed by England or Scotland, and lost twice at home to Ireland just a couple of months ago.

There is still a long way to go for the Wallabies and facing New Zealand in the Championship opener could well turn into a disaster for the third year in a row.

Look for Australia to benefit from having Pocock back, but missing Kuridrani and Kerevi, as well as having Hooper hobbled, will be huge blows which usually prove to be insurmountable against a team like New Zealand.

The All Blacks should be their usual selves here, they showed no negative signs in June against an improved France team, and at club level the Hurricanes and especially the Crusaders were again the best teams in the Southern Hemisphere.

Expect New Zealand to dominate most aspects of the game. Their scrum is better than Australia’s, while in the wide game New Zealand is always unstoppable, and should capitalize on Kerevi and Kuridrani missing for the Wallabies. Look for plenty of classic New Zealand line breaks which will translate in gains of tens of meters. Australia might hold its own at the breakdown with Pocock, but that is barely enough to realistically challenge the All Blacks.

It is difficult to see how and from where could the Wallabies get an edge in this clash, so you really can`t go against the All Blacks in this Rugby Championship opener.

The handicap line is one of the lowest we saw recently in New Zealand’s matches and I find that to be unrealistic. I reckon both the bookies and the general public are giving Australia too much credit, so my tip will be New Zealand to cover the 10,5 point handicap, as they can gain this amount of points in literally a couple of good minutes – even if Australia would be competitive for most of the match.

The All Blacks will come out strong and should win this well into double digits. 8-9 units seems like a reasonable stake on this bet. Prediction: Australia – New Zealand 21 – 40.

Pick: New Zealand -10,5
Odds: 1.89 @ Sbobet
Stake: 9
Possible profit: 8.01
Event date: 18 August

About Rostick

Born in '88. Running betting tips websites since 2007. Launched Betdistrict in 2013. Worked as a bookie for a year to spy on the other side. Rugby Union and NBA expert. Editor info & statistics.

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