Australia – Uruguay

The Wallabies will take on Uruguay early Saturday morning (European time) in Pool D of the 2019 Rugby World Cup.

Australia came into this World Cup in rather poor form, at least for their standards, and indeed they failed to impress so far. The Wallabies started with a 39-21 win against Fiji in a game which was much closer than the score shows, with Fiji being in the lead until the last 20 minutes. The next game was not much better. Australia played pretty good rugby against a strong Welsh team, but it was not enough, and the Wallabies lost 25-29, thus likely missing out on their main objective to top the group.

Uruguay was expected to lose all group games by wide margins, but the South Americans shocked the rugby world by beating Fiji 30-27 in their opener. Although Fiji provided Uruguay with plenty of help, it was still a hard fought, brilliant win on the back of a great performance from the minnows. Nevertheless, as it was kind of expected, Uruguay couldn`t maintain the same level in the next game – getting abused and beated 33-7 by Georgia.

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Team news & lineups:

Australia will obviously rotate the team for this match, making 12 changes to the lineup which lost against Wales. However, the team still looks pretty strong. Most of the backs are the usual first choice for coach Cheika, and there are a couple of big names amond the forwards as well.

Uruguay will make no less than 8 changes to the starting XV after fielding an almost unchanged lineup in the first two games. While it`s understandable to send some fresh legs on the pitch, it`s quite a bit of shock do that against Australia.

Australia: 15. Kurtley Beale, 14. Dane Haylett-Petty, 13. Tevita Kuridrani, 12. Matt Toomua, 11. Jordan Petaia, 10. Christian Lealiifano, 9. Nic White, 8. Jack Dempsey, 7. Michael Hooper (c), 6. Lukhan Salakaia-Loto, 5. Adam Coleman, 4. Rob Simmons, 3. Allan Alaalatoa, 2. Folau Fainga’a, 1. James Slipper

Uruguay: 15. Rodrigo Silva, 14. Federico Favaro, 13. Tomas Inciarte, 12. Andres Vilaseca (c), 11. Nicolas Freitas, 10. Felipe Berchesi, 9. Agustin Ormaechea, 8. Manuel Diana, 7. Juan Diego Ormaechea, 6. Manuel Ardao, 5. Manuel Leindekar, 4. Franco Lamanna, 3. Diego Arbelo, 2. German Kessler, 1. Juan Echeverria

Australian rugby is not in the best moment right now, but this is a relevant argument only when we`re talking about games against the big boys. Against Uruguay, it really doesn`t matter if the Wallabies are not quite at their best. They don`t need their A game to hand Uruguay a big beating.

Fair play to the Uruguayans for that magnificent win against Fiji, but that did not transform them overnight. It was just one of those days, one of those sports miracles. But Uruguay remains a Tier 2 team, and actually one of the weaker Tier 2 teams (even if they made some small steps forward over the last couple of years). Their previous game against Georgia was clear proof: a 27 point loss in which Uruguay had no chance.

Changing so many starters is a very risky strategy for Uruguay here, and it could very well backfire. Australia also rung the changes, but there`s no comparition between the depth of the two teams. Uruguay doesn`t have the luxury of having 31 players of similar quality.

The 50,5 point spread set by the bookies actually looks accessible for Australia. It would have surely been 55+ points before the start of the World Cup, so there might be an opportunity here, even though big spreads have generally not been covered in this RWC.

But Uruguay has a very leaky defense, and Australia will start some of its best backs in this game, so line breaks galore can be expected from the Wallabies. They will be eager to show what they are capable of after two average performances (and the second string players who will come in will be pumped up to prove their worth), and have the offense to put huge pressure on the Uruguay defense.

The match will be played at the Oita Bank Dome, which has a roof, so the Australians won`t be bothered by potential bad weather.

The two teams last met in the previous World Cup, when Australia won 65-3. A similar result could be on the cards.

Uruguay remains one of the 2-3 weakest teams of this World Cup despite the brilliant win over Fiji, and they will be in for a long 80 minutes this Saturday – especially with all the changes they made in their lineup. My tip will be Australia to cover the 50,5 point handicap. Prediction: Australia – Uruguay 59 – 3.

Pick: Australia -50,5
Odds: 1.91 @ William Hill
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 7.28
Event date: 5 October