Australia – Wales

Australia Wales rugby world cup betting preview

Australia and Wales will meet in an early blockbuster clash of the 2019 Rugby World Cup, as the two teams will compete for supremacy in a Pool D which also features Fiji, Georgia and Uruguay.

The Wallabies have been far from impressive in their opening match against Fiji last Saturday, as they were trailing until the last 20 minutes and only a late surge earned them a 39-21 win. The result was good for Australia, but it was misleading, as their performance wasn`t that great. Fact is that Australia isn`t looking like one of the strong favorites for this World Cup. They have been in decline since 2015, with low attendances, poor results at club level, and below average results at National team level as well. This year they had one good game, a fantastic 47-26 win against New Zealand (which the All Blacks avenged a week later with a 36-0 victory of their own), but that was pretty much it.

Wales came into the World Cup as the reigning 6 Nations Champions, and Warren Gatland’s side seems to have hit maximum form right when it matters the most, in a World Cup year. Wales made light work of Georgia in a 43-14 victory on Monday, with the Welsh leading by 21 points after 20 minutes and finishing the job with a 4th try by the end of the first half. The Welsh really look good right now, and it`s pretty hard to find weaknesses in the team.

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Team news & lineups:

Wales will make no changes to the lineup which took down Georgia, and that makes sense considering how well Wales played, and that there has been enough time for rest since Monday. Australia will make 4 changes to their lineup, bringing in Foley and Genia for extra quality, but surprisingly deciding to bench Kurtley Beale.

Australia: 15 Dane Haylett-Petty, 14 Adam Ashley-Cooper, 13 James O’Connor, 12 Samu Kerevi, 11 Marika Koroibete, 10 Bernard Foley, 9 Will Genia, 8 Isi Naisarani, 7 Michael Hooper (c), 6 David Pocock, 5 Rory Arnold, 4 Izack Rodda, 3 Allan Alaalatoa, 2 Tolu Latu, 1 Scott Sio

Wales: 15 Liam Williams, 14 George North, 13 Jonathan Davies, 12 Hadleigh Parkes, 11 Josh Adams, 10 Dan Biggar, 9 Gareth Davies, 8 Josh Navidi, 7 Justin Tipuric, 6 Aaron Wainwright, 5 Alun Wyn Jones (c), 4 Jake Ball, 3 Tomas Francis, 2 Ken Owens, 1 Wyn Jones

This is a big game right here, and both teams will feel they have a chance to win it. If Australia plays like in that 47-26 win over New Zealand back in August, they`ll surely fancy their chances. But fact is, that was their only really good game of the year.

The Australians are not in the best spot coming into this World Cup, they haven`t been playing very well over the past couple of years, and on top of that they miss their best player, Israel Folau. He was sacked by the Australian Rugby Federation after some controversial religious posts on Instagram, so that was a big scandal which affected the team in the past few months. Folau has always been such an integral part of his team`s success, and there`s no doubt that his absence makes Australia a weaker team.

Reece Hodge’s suspension will also be a blow for the Wallabies, as his ability to kick at goal from the halfway line and beyond would have been much needed in a game like this, and could have possibly earned them 3 extra points during the match. It would have been a a good advantage to have over the Welsh, who surprisingly decided not to select their own long distance man, Halfpenny, for this game.

As for Wales, they are clicking on all cylinders. Their defense has been absolutely superb recently, and they definitely have better team chemistry than Australia does at the moment.

Look for the Welsh defense and their kicking game (Folau`s absence will be big here) to frustrate the Wallabies, and Wales should have enough to get the win here against a strong but shaky opponent.

Weather might be rainy at game time, and if that is the case, Wales surely won`t mind, as it would suit their game better.

One thing to take into account is the fact that Australia has traditionally destroyed Wales at International level, winning 13 (!!) straight H2H matches from 2009 to 2017, until Wales broke the spell last year with a 9-6 victory in Cardiff.

Simply put, Wales is the better team right now. I was hoping the bookies would make Australia the favorite here based on the H2H, but they did their job well. Nevertheless, Wales to win at anything above 1.70 seems like a good investment. Prediction: Australia – Wales 21 – 26.

Pick: Wales
Odds: 1.75 @ Bwin
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 6
Event date: 29 September

About Rostick

Born in '88. Running betting tips websites since 2007. Launched Betdistrict in 2013. Worked as a bookie for a year to spy on the other side. Rugby Union and NBA expert. Editor info & statistics.

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