BATE Borisov – PAOK

BATE Borisov will take on PAOK Salonic in the second round of the Europa League group stages. The two sides have been drawn in Group L, alongside Chelsea and MOL Vidi.

BATE Borisov is in very good form right now, riding a 5 match winning streak which included an excellent victory in the first EL group stage game – as BATE won 2-0 on the road against a resilient and well organized MOL Vidi side. The hosts are very strong this season, leading their domestic league where they have a 18-3-1 statline and playing solid in Europe as well (defeated HJK and Qarabag in the UCL qualifiers, but were knocked out by PSV).

PAOK Salonic is also having an excellent season so far. The Greek side should have probably won the league last year, losing it to AEK only because of a forfeited result. In the current campaign PAOK is continuing on the same note. The visitors have 5 wins out of 5 games in Greece, and in the last two rounds they won two derbies: 2-0 against AEK and 1-0 at Olympiakos. PAOK was also competitive in the Europa League opener against Chelsea, but lost 0-1 at home.

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Both teams are strong and are in exceptional form. PAOK only lost against Benfica and Chelsea this season, while BATE Borisov only lost to PSV in the last 20 games.

PAOK is definitely riding high after two wins with AEK and Olympiakos. However, those matches could actually have a negative effect. PAOK put in a lot of effort in these games over the last few weeks, both phisically and mentally. Previously they played Chelsea, and they also had a greek cup tie. As such, this will be the 5th game in 15 days for PAOK – 4 of them being crucial games against rivals and top opponents.

It is possible that PAOK will feel some fatigue, maybe mentally even more than phisically. Having to travel to Belarus to take on a side which is in great form will not help.

Odds on PAOK seem to be on the low side here. Despite their excellent form, fact is that Greek sides haven`t been very impressive in Europe this season when they met good opponents.

This should be a close game, and BATE Borisov could get a result considering their great form and the fact that they have home court advantage, plus the fact that PAOK is coming after such a difficult run of games.

The draw is very attractive at odds above 3.00 and is probably worth a shot here. However, my tip will be BATE to cover the +0,5 handicap, because I would not want to pick the draw and lose in case of a BATE win (I would lose the bet despite being right in my analysis). Prediction: BATE Borisov – PAOK Salonic 1-1.

Pick: BATE Borisov +0,5
Odds: 1.53 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 4.24
Event date: 4 October