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Benfica and Zenit Sankt Petersburg are in probably the most balanced Champions League group, with Leverkusen and Monaco, so everything is to play for here right from the off.
Benfica lost so many players in the last 6 months that you have to wonder if they can keep up the level of the previous seasons. They did start pretty well in Portugal, 3 wins and 2 draws with just a single goal conceded, but of course Champions League football is a totally different level. Last time out Benfica won 5-0 at Setubal over the weekend, their best performance of the season so far.
Zenit was totally dominant in the playoffs, routing AEL Limassol 3-1 aggregate (should have been at least 5-0) and Standard Liege 4-0 aggregate. Zenit started the season in absolute blistering form, playing some excellent football – besides the results in the playoffs also getting 7 wins out of 7 matches in Russia, last time 4-2 over Dinamo Moscow over the weekend. Seems like Zenit is finally ready for a solid Champions League run this year.
Team news & lineups
Benfica will miss Almeida and possibly Silvio, while for Zenit Fayzulin won`t feature in the lineup and Hulk is doubtful, but he will probably play at least 40 minutes, maybe even start.
Benfica: Moraes – Pereira, Luisao, Eliseu, Jardel – Perez, Gaitan, Salvio, Samaris – Talisca, Lima
Zenit: Lodygin – Criscito, Garay, Lombaerts, Smolnikov – Garcia, Witsel – Danny, Shatov, Hulk – Kerzhakov
At a first glance I had this one as a draw and I still think that`s the most likely scenario (nobody wants to lose, it would be a big handicap in such a balanced group), but after a more focused analysis I really can`t rule out Zenit winning here. Benfica is a weakened side and the Russians have just been unstoppable so far this season, they are playing the better football between the two. The Portugese side will clearly offer Zenit more spaces to work with than all other sides Zenit met, so that could be of great benefit to the offensive Russian team. Of course Benfica is still a solid side which deserves respect and I do think they deserve to be slightly favored by the odds, but not as low as 1.90 and my personal analysis suggests Zenit has the first chance. My tip will be Zenit +0,5 handicap (x2). Prediction: Benfica – Zenit Sankt Petersburg 1-1.
Pick: Zenit (+0,5)
Odds: 1.98 @ Bet365
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 7.84
Event date: 16 September
