Every bet you place should be based on solid pre-match analysis. Knowing everything there is to know about the event you will bet on is key if you want to make profit in this bussiness.
Placing a bet implies following a couple of steps. The first thing you want to do is to check out the bookmakers offer for the current day, or for the desired timeframe. Obviously, there will be some events in which you will like a competitor or another to win. If the odds satisfy you, it`s time to start analyzing the respective event (s). Visiting quality free picks websites like betdistrict is a good idea in order to gather further information and different opinions. After your work is done, you will be left with the best possible choices.
There are many factors that have to be taken into account in order to make a solid analysis. The most important things you should look at are the following:
Standings, league tables, goals, and so on. You should not bet based ONLY on statistics, but they are an important part of every analysis.
• Home / Away
This is a no-brainer, but he have a home court advantage analysis that could shed more light on what home court advantage really means
Form is always a big factor in picking winners. Latest results don`t guarantee anything but are always very relevant. Good form is (of course) good for your bet, bad form can also help you find value on teams that are going through a rough patch but are better than their last games suggest.
• Injuries / Team News
You can analyze an event all you want, if your team has 10 unavailable players you are doomed to lose. Staying updated with team news is also an edge you have over the bookies, since they won`t usually change the odds based on just an injury or two.
Recent history is very important, especially in individual sports. For example think how hard it is for Federer to beat Nadal because of the styles of play.
• Special situations
Are the players paid? Is there a normal atmosphere in the locker room? Is the coach supported by the players? Will the fans turn against their team? These questions, and other similar ones, have answers that could decisevly influence your bet.
• Auxiliar factors – Weather / Surface condition / Referee / Fans
Often ignored, these factors can have a huge impact on the outcome of the game. AC Milan will have considerably lower chances to cover the spread at home if they play in heavy snow, on a frozen pitch, with a strict referee and with no fans in the stands.
• Match type (importance, derby, beginning of the season, end of the season, cup finals etc.)
Motivation is the number 1 concern here, but there are also other factors like competition specifics. A friendly game will never be the same as a decisive qualification game. Cup games are always more unpredictable, as are derbies .The end of the season produces games in wich some teams don`t need points, or both teams are happy with a draw (Italy is the queen of such fixes). Be sure your competitor has the proper motivation to win and be sure you know the risk affiliated with the specific competition/match you bet on.
Many people believe that bets should be based on “feeling”. This is completely false. How can someone say that you should listen to blind intuition as opposed to real information, statistics and probabilities? Actually, this “feeling” is no more than betting data accumulated in your subconscient, so your instinct is still based on information. Analyze the game and bet the facts, not the “feelings”. Accurate analysis will give you the edge over the bookmaker and will turn the odds in your favour.