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Value betting


Value betting means betting with a higher probability of win than the odds suggest. It`s a mathematical approach to betting and, even though analysis is key, when you are using value betting your personal opinion about the outcome of the event has little importance. Instead of looking for the competitor which you are sure will win, you look for the odds which offer the most value. The point is to bet on odds that are higher than you think they should be. For example, for a bet that has 50% chances to be successful, any odds above 2.00 represent value. It`s like wagering 1$ on a flip of a coin (50$%chances) and getting a profit of 1,5$ instead of 1$. That would be nice, wouldn`t it?

Let-s try an even more practical example.  Liverpool plays Everton at home, the visitors being priced at 5.00. It doesn`t matter if you think Liverpool will win or lose, you are just sure that Everton has more than 20% chances of taking all three points. You bet on Everton and you achieve a value bet.

Theoretically, value betting guarantees profit in the long term, because you have the edge over the bookmaker.  But this cannot be done without a correct estimation of the probabilities of the win. You also have to have patience, because losses are inevitable. You have to stay focused on your goal in the long-run. Besides this, it`s not so easy to find value bets taking into account that the bookies apply their “juice” to every odds, making them a little bit unfair (for example you will always have approximately 1.91-1.91 instead of 2-2). This is the reason why most punters fail to make consistent profit at sportsbetting, but a solid punter can overcome the deficit.

Sports are not exact science like roulette or blackjack, where the probabilities are strictly mathematical and cannot vary. Your skill, experience and analysis can help you obtain the necessary edge over the bookies and win in the long term. Trust this statement: bookmakers are not perfect and you can predict better then them as long as you know what you are doing. They sometimes make mistakes, they are sometimes forced to offer value. For  example, top football teams (and top competitors in general) will always be underpriced, because the general public bets heavy on the big names. In this case you will often find value on the underdog. However, value can be also found in lower odds, not only in high prices.  Odds of 1.20 would have huge value if we are talking about a competitor who has 90% chances to win.

Value betting is a great concept but unfortunately it cannot be measured 100% accurate statistically or mathematically, Everything depends on your ability to correctly predict the probabilities and on your discipline. If you are a good punter, you should find value betting to be as profitable as it sounds. As long as you identify the value, the profit will be there. Value betting also comes with a staking plan if you want one, and that is the Kelly Criteria betting system.