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CSKA - Bayern


In CSKA game at Darussafaka I had the game Over 170 pts and it ended 66:80. In last CSKA game against Maccabi I had them to score Over 90 pts and they ended on 76 points. So they are at least 10 points bellow bookies expectations and those opponents don't play hard defenses. Also in last VTB league game with full(EuroLeague) squad they collected only 75 points. They don't play that fast anymore and they rely on shooting in which they are not in great shape right now. In some games they have more 3pt attempts than for 2pt, similar to Unicaja. I am not sure if their coach realized their offense is not sharp or they simply changed tactics and turned to more defensive approach and the reason why I think that is because I see Nikita Kurbanov having a lot more minutes on the floor than before and he is considered to be one of the top defensive players in Europe. Except Maccabi game where they completely under performed on both ends, their opponents in last couple of games are also performing bellow average in offense and I believe this is defensive approach I am talking about.

Bayern is playing hot/cold in terms of their defense, actually I believe their defense is poor lately taking into account how many points they received against Efes, high scoring games against Budućnost and Milano but they played preseason game in Moscow which ended 79:73 and looking at CSKA lately I don't think it should be much different right now. Bayern tasted in first round what happens when CSKA is in top shape and when defense is not working so from their coaches point of view their only option is solid defense, they can't compete with CSKA the other way. Bayern let their opponents score more only at Efes and in a blowout against Maccabi.

I could see 85:73 result in this game.


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Pick: CSKA Under 89.5 points
Odds: 1.91
Bookmaker:
➾ Pinnacle
Stake: 7 units
Tipster: Eastwood



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