I had a pick on Belarus -3 Asian against San Marino 3 days ago. Belarus won that game 5-0. I still believe bookies are desperate to set price in the new format of Nations League. Same category teams meet each other. San Marino is at the bottom of FIFA Ranking on 203th/211 nations while Luxembourg is 85th. San Marino record tells its story, 1 victory- 4 draws and 144 lost in 149 games + scored 23 conceded 654 goals. They lost all last 21 games on the spin, only 3 of them were not more than 1 goal difference 1-0 Lichtenstein 1-0 Azerbaijan 2-1 Lithuania.
I also checked their stats against League D level teams, San Marino is 1w-2d-18 loss in those 21 meetings so far. So, they also have bad record against same category teams. All these stats are enough convincing for me to stay against them, even it is not a surprise.
Luxembourg football is evolving in recent years. Dudelange and Niederkon gained experience at CL and EL qualification stages. 16/23 players abroad include first tier teams like Metz- New York City- Grasshopers- Legia- Norrkoping - Ufa - Mainz. They have beaten Belarus 1-0 , Georgia 1-0 and draws with France and Bulgaria are noticeable. I personally know Olivier Thill who will be new Russian Ufa player this year as well as young Martins and Les Gersons. I expect Luxembourg to score at least 2 goals to cover handicap. San Marino might play aggressive football to gain surprise points. I can also back San Marino to receive +2 cards.
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Pick: Luxembourg -2 Asian
Bookmaker: ➾ Pinnacle
Stake: 7 units
|TIPSTER: Damir||Total profit: +63.29||Tips won: 153|
|Country: Germany||Total yield: +2.85%||Tips lost: 113|
|Speciality: Football||Total picks: 284||Tips pushed: 18|
|17.09||• Zaglebie Sosnowiec - Gornik||1.79||8||-8|
|16.09||• Bordeaux - Nimes||1.75||7||+5.25|
|16.09||• Espanyol - Levante||1.91||7||-7|
|15.09||• Ath Bilbao - Real Madrid||1.65||7||-7|
|11.09||• San Marino - Luxembourg||1.94||7||+6.58|
|08.09||• Inegolspor v Gaziantepspor||1.91||7||+6.37|
|02.09||• Hatayspor - Gaziantep||1.96||8||+7.68|
|02.09||• Sundsvall - Sirius||1.66||7||+4.62|
|01.09||• Hoffenheim - Freiburg||1.77||8||+6.16|
|01.09||• Everton - Huddersfield||1.68||7||-7|