Celtics – Cavaliers

The Cleveland Cavaliers will attempt to finish off the Celtics with a win in Game 5 in Boston, as the Cavs lead the Eastern Conference finals 3-1 after failing to take care of business at home.

Cleveland looked certain to sweep the Celtics after they dominated the first two games in Boston, winning by a combined total of 57 points to go up 0-2. However, Cleveland had unexpected problems at home, losing Game 3 despite leading by 21 points midway trough the third quarter, and falling down by 16 points early in Game 4. Nevertheless, the Cavs did well to recover in Game 4 and eventually win it easily by 13 points.

Boston deserves a ton of credit for how they handled themselves after being blown out in the first two games at home, and also losing their best player Isaiah Thomas due to injury. The fact that they won Game 3 and were competitive in Game 4 made little sense basketball – wise, but they somehow managed to pull off two impressive performances.

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Despite Boston doing well in the previous 2 games away from home, they are still down 3-1 and by far the worse team in this series. The bookies have Cleveland as a 9.5 point spread favorite to win Game 5 on the road and one could argue that even 9.5 points are too low considering the difference between the two teams.

Cavs were 16 and 14.5 point spread favorites at home and even though they didn`t cover, those were correct spreads (at least). Home court advantage has not been a factor in this series, so Boston shouldn`t get 4-5 extra points just for playing at the Garden, especially as you would expect the Cavs to step on the gas in a deciding game.

Cleveland and Lebron James simply have too much for Boston, as they have proved multiple times this season, with the exception of about 4 total quarters at the end of Game 3 and at the start of Game 4. They dominated the second half of Game 4, regaining their rhythm, and Lebron was fantastic in that stretch as well.

I do expect Cleveland to push the tempo here with the chance to close the series, as Golden State is already in the final and the Cavs don`t want to lengthen this matchup with Boston. I believe they have learn their lessons and will not allow the Celtics to stay in the game.

I can see this being similar to Games 1 and 2, which Cleveland won by 13 and 44 points respectively here at the Garden. I posted losing picks on Games 3 and 4 riding on Cleveland, and thought long and hard if a 3rd pick on Cleveland makes sense – but I have to back the Cavs again, as they are clearly the logical choice.

Boston had its moments late in Game 3 and early in Game 4, but they might have exhausted their fuel, and I fully expect Cleveland to pick up where they left off in Game 4, ending this series with a comfortable win tonight. The Cavs stepped on the gas when needed in Game 4 and won the second half by 23 points, so I expect them to keep that intensity and close this series out. This is a close out game and their experience should not allow another off night. My tip is Cleveland to cover the 10 point spread handicap. Prediction: Boston Celtics – Cleveland Cavaliers 95 – 112.

Pick: Cavaliers -10
Odds: 2.00 @ 1xBet
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 8
Event date: 26 May