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Brazil – Peru

Brazil Peru Copa America final betting preview

Hosts Brazil will take on a surprising Peru side on Sunday night at the Maracana Stadium, in the 2019 Copa America final.

Brazil hasn`t necessarily been stellar in this competition, and they were always going to struggle a bit without Neymar. They had some good games, most notably the 5-0 win over today`s opponent, Peru, in the group stage, and the 2-0 win against Argentina in the semifinals. They also had some less impressive performances, like the draws against Venezuela and Paraguay (both 0-0). They needed penalties to advance past the quarterfinals against the Paraguayans. Nevertheless, Brazil will be pumped up coming after the semifinal win over rivals Argentina.

Peru has definitely been the surprise of this tournament, as they haven`t reached a Copa America final since 1975 (!!), and were definitely not expected to get anywhere close to the last act this year. However, with a lot of luck, grit and determination, Peru did it. They were average in the group stages, drawing 0-0 with Venezuela, suffering to get past Bolovia 3-1 and losing 0-5 against Brazil. They qualified as the best third placed team, and got past Uruguay (0-0, penalties) and shocked Chile in the semifinals (3-0).

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Team news & lineups:

Brazil will miss Willian, while Richarlison, Fernandinho and Filipe Luis are doubtful. Luis (who missed the semifinal against Argentina) is the only regular starter from the group of three questionable players, and he is highly expected to play. Peru will miss key man Farfan, who got injured in the last group stage game.

Brazil: Alisson – Alves, Marquinhos, Silva, Luiz – Casemiro, Arthur – Everton, Jesus, Coutinho – Firmino

Peru: Gallese – Advincula, Zambrano, Abram, Trauco – Yotun, Tapia – Carrillo, Cueva, Flores – Guerrero

Maybe it`s not fair play to take away credit from this gritty, determined group of Peru players, but the truth is they got extremely lucky to reach this stage – and probably did not deserve it.

A fair case can be made that Peru actually disappointed in the group stages, drawing with Venezuela and getting embarrassed by Brazil, while barely edging a poor Bolivia side after being down 0-1.

In the quarterfinals they had zero shots on goal and zero opportunities to score against Uruguay, while the Uruguayans had a few massive chances, including two goals disallowed by VAR – and one of them could have arguably stood. The Peruvians kept their nerve in the penalty shootout and that was it.

Against Chile in the semifinals, Peru scored 3 goals from 3 shots on goal. Meanwhile, Chile had 65% possession and missed chance after chance from every position – crossbar, keeper saves, you name it.

Law of averages would suggest Peru can`t possibly get this lucky again. And in any case, Brazil in this tournament (even not playing fantastic) proved to be a better and more mature side than all other teams.

It will probably not be 5-0 like in the group stages, and Peru`s fighting spirit and determination must not be underestimated. But the task of winning the Copa America in Brazil, against Brazil, seems too difficult for them. Their offense is shot, especially without Farfan, and Brazil is yet to concede in this tournament, so the hosts keeping a clean sheet is not an unreasonable expectation. At the same time, surely Brazil would be expected to find a couple of goals here.

My tip will be Brazil to win and cover the -1 asian handicap. Prediction: Brazil – Peru 2-0.

Pick: Brazil (-1 Asian Handicap)
Odds: 1.46 @ 18Bet
Stake: 10
Possible profit: 4.60
Event date: 7 July

About Rostick

Former bookie & water polo player. Rugby Union expert. - EDITOR INFO & STATS
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