Ruud – Garin

Casper Ruud Christian Garin betting tips

Casper Ruud and Christian Garin will square off on Saturday in the semifinals at the ATP 250 event in Sao Paulo, held on red clay.

Ruud has played some of his best tennis over the past couple of weeks, starting with last week`s tournament in Rio De Janeiro. There, Ruud passed qualifications and reached the quarter finals, where he lost against Djere – but Ruud put up a very good fight in that match against a red hot Djere, who eventually won the title. This week Ruud is playing even better, winning all his matches in straight sets against Monteiro, J. Sousa and Dellien.

Garin has been reasonably good so far in this South American clay court stretch, reaching the second round in Buenos Aires and Rio De Janeiro over the past few weeks. Here in Sao Paulo he upped his level a bit and played very well to claim some big scalps, getting past P. Sousa, Munar and Leo Mayer to reach the semifinals (losing a set against both Munar and Mayer).

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This will be the first meeting between Ruud and Garin. Both are natural clay courters and love the conditions here in Sao Paulo. There`s not much else to say about the matchup, there shouldn`t be any edge for one player over the other from this point of view.

Garin might have had a more difficult draw than Ruud this week, but not by much (if at all). Instead, he struggled much more to advance to the semis than Ruud.

Garin needed three tiebreaks and almost three hours to defeat Munar in the second round, and again had a long three setter in the quarterfinals, against a rather out of form Leo Mayer. Garin showed good tennis, but there were plenty of instances this week in which he was the second best player of the court.

Ruud on the other hand was dominant in all his matches from start to finish, winning 6 sets out of 6 against good opposition and never going beyond 6-4 in a set. In the quarters, he conceded only two games against Dellien.

Ruud is playing probably the best tennis of his career right now, and what`s very important is the fact that he`s building on the solid week he had in Rio. As such, he`s playing consistently great for two weeks now, which makes you think that he will be able to keep this up.

There is no doubt that right now Ruud is the better player and is playing better tennis. He is on fire and he has been consistent for two weeks straight, so he should be able to keep this up – and if he does, it`s hard to see Garin winning this match. Garin is playing well himself, but he is not “in the zone” like Ruud seems to be right now.

My tip will be Ruud to win. Bookies might have been a bit too generous with odds on Garin, and people are already putting their money on Ruud.

I feel there is good value to be taken here (personally I wouldn`t have priced Ruud above 1.60, maybe even lower), so I`m going to be aggressive and invest 10 units on the bet. I recommend this stake for anything above 1.70. For lower odds, I would decrease the stakes gradually. Prediction: Casper Ruud – Christian Garin 7-6 6-3.

Pick: Ruud
Odds: 1.76 @ Unibet
Stake: 10
Possible profit: 7.60
Event date: 2 March

About Rostick

Born in '88. Running betting tips websites since 2007. Launched Betdistrict in 2013. Worked as a bookie for a year to spy on the other side. Rugby Union and NBA expert. Editor info & statistics.

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