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Cleveland Cavaliers won both games on the road in this NBA Eastern Conference final, taking a 2-0 lead and having the chance to see the series out with two home wins. Atlanta however will know that winning Game 3 is their last opportunity to keep a small chance of winning the series.
The Cavs have been dominant in the first two games, despite missing Kevin Love and with Kyrie Irving playing limited minutes in Game 1 and missing out in Game 2. That Game 2 was really a demonstration of what this team is made of, blowing out Atlanta with a lineup that looked more like the Lakers than championship material. Lebron was top class and the other players stepped up as well, leaving no chance for Atlanta in the second half. Now the Cavs are expected to win these two home games without too many problems, especially if Irving comes back – he`s questionable for Game 3. I expect him to play, but his performance will be affected and coach Blatt won’t give him too many minutes.
The fantastic regular season seems long forgotten in Atlanta, as the Hawks started deteriorating as the playoffs went on – showing signs of weakness against the Wizards and now looking like a lottery team against the shorthanded Cavs, not even being able to make games interesting on their own court. They were not able to defend the three and shot horribly from distance over the 2 games. They are a team that moves the ball and take outside shots, so they have no chance if threes aren`t falling – and now Kyle Korver is out for the season, so they have to do it in Cleveland without their best 3 point shooter.
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Even though Cleveland showed clear superiority in Atlanta and now the Hawks are without Korver, I don’t expect the Cavs to just cruise towards a sweep. In those 2 games in Atlanta everything went right for the Cavs, they were shooting lights out (were 11 from 17 from three in the 3rd quarter of Game 2), while Atlanta could not buy a basket from downtown. It’s still a question if it was the Cavs defense that denied Atlanta, but they missed too many open shots for me to buy into that logic.
I can’t see Cleveland going hot for a third game in a row and I expect Atlanta to finally start hitting some shots. If that happens, this game will look extremely different and the Hawks will have an honest shot for a win. I expect Atlanta to come out strong as they need to fight for their lives in this one and I reckon they will stay with Cleveland right until the end, giving themselves a chance to win. Korver being out is a blow, but at these odds Atlanta is well worth a try and I actually believe they will pull it off.
If Irving does not play, I just can’t envision these Cavs blowing out Atlanta again with a lottery roster + Lebron James. And if Irving plays, he will be limited anyway in minutes and impact. It has been a series of execution so far more than people realize, Cavs did not simply outplay Atlanta tactically or trough sheer quality. I expect more balanced percentages in execution today and I think this one will be decided in the final minutes, so my tip is Atlanta to cover a 3 point spread – a very generous alternate spread at excellent odds by Bet365.
Straight win can surely be tried with low stakes and the even money spread of 9 points could also warrant a solid investment. Prediction: Cleveland Cavaliers – Atlanta Hawks 95-96.
Pick: Atlanta +3
Odds: 3.25 @ Bet365
Stake: 6
Possible profit: 13.5
Event date: 25 May
