Connacht – CA Brive

Connacht Brive challenge cup round 4 preview

Connacht will host Brive in the 4th round of the Rugby Challenge Cup group stages, with the hosts set to achieve mathematical qualification in case of a win.

Connacht has struggled domestically this season in the Pro 14, where they currently look like they won`t make the playoffs, but the Irish outfit has been incomparably better in Europe. Connacht has won all three games so far in this competition, including a 38-31 victory last weekend in France against the same opponent, Brive.

The French side is still in with a shot to qualify from this group despite having 1 win and 2 losses, but it has become clear that they are not interested in the Challenge Cup. Brive is involved in a grueling relegation battle in the French Top 14, and that is where their focus lies. The visitors rested almost all regular starters last week in France, and will do so again this weekend in Ireland.

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Team news & lineups:

Similar to what happened in the direct meeting last week, Connacht will field a strong lineup, while Brive will rest many of their key guys.

Connacht: 15 Darragh Leader, 14 Cian Kelleher, 13 Pita Ahki, 12 Bundee Aki, 11 Matt Healy, 10 Jack Carty, 9 James Mitchell, 8 Eoghan Masterson, 7 James Connolly, 6 Cillian Gallagher, 5 Quinn Roux, 4 Ultan Dillane, 3 Finlay Bealham, 2 Shane Delahunt, 1 Denis Buckley

Brive: 15 Gaetan Germain, 14 Nadir Megdoud, 13 Arnaud Mignardi, 12 Benjamin Petre, 11 Franck Romanet, 10 Matthieu Ugalde, 9 Florian Cazenave, 8 Etienne Herjean, 7 Dominiko Waqaniborutu, 6 PΓ©niami Narisia, 5 Jan Uys, 4 Johan Snyman, 3 Demba Bamba, 2 Mike Tadjer, 1 Vivien Devisme

Connacht fell down early 3-19 last week in France, but they were utterly dominant since that point, winning the last 50 minutes by 35 points to 12. The impression was clearly that Connacht has figured out Brive after the slow start, and they are expected to continue on the same note at home.

The Irish have always been a very competent home team, where they can go head 2 head with the best clubs in Europe – at the same time, French sides are notoriously bad travelers. Brive has not won a game on the road this season in all competitions.

While a difference between the two sides could be seen in France, chances are it will be much more visible in Ireland. If Connacht won in France by 7 points, while also utterly dominating the second half, you would definitely expect them to win this by more than 17 in their own back yard.

Connacht is one of the few top European sides who treat the Challenge Cup with full respect, this competition is importan to them, while Brive is only focused on the domestic league and will be without most of their best players.

Look for Connacht to run the visitors around with ease, using their fast paced wing play to pile up the tries against the immobile and unmotivated Brive, whose lineup also lacks chemistry, as these players haven`t played that much together. My tip is Connacht to cover the 17 point (asian) handicap, and this line is moving up. Prediction: Connacht – Brive 40 – 16.

Pick: Connacht -17
Odds: 1.88 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 7.04
Event date: 16 December

About Rostick

Born in '88. Running betting tips websites since 2007. Launched Betdistrict in 2013. Worked as a bookie for a year to spy on the other side. Rugby Union and NBA expert. Editor info & statistics.

11 comments

  1. Cremation

  2. and I am Jewish. lol total coincidence tho

  3. Easy WIN .. u know your stuff!!! keep on killing it πŸ™‚

    ps: as a Jewish myself I am sure you are not racist.

    • Whoa, pump the breaks a bit, mate. Who said I am racist? I have nothing against Jews or anybody else. What the hell?
       
      I think you meant well, but you can`t go throwing words like these around.

    • Sorry maybe I shouldnt had said that. U are right I only meant well but I misread ur conversation with Tumbabiro. I read you since a long time and I have a very good opionion of you. Keep up the good job.

    • Glad we got it sorted out. To be honest I probably got too defensive and overreacted in the moment, I was just shocked that the discussion escalated into racial issues.
       
      Thanks for the nice words and for following us, mate!

  4. “Jews” is kinda a derogatory term Rostick …

  5. This discussion is completely crazy, I don`t even know what to say.

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