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Crusaders – Jaguares

Crusaders Jaguares Super Rugby final prediction

Two time reigning champions Crusaders will face first time finalists Jaguares in the Super Rugby Final on Saturday morning. The Crusaders will host the final at the AMI Stadium in Christchurch.

The Crusaders have dominated the top club competition in the Southern Hemisphere with authority for the past two years, and things have not changed in 2019. The New Zealanders at Crusaders have been the top team in the regular season with only 2 losses from 16 games, and have been rock solid in the playoffs as usual. They defeated the Highlanders 38-14 and the very strong Hurricanes 30-26.

The Jaguares had a superb season this year, by far the best ever for the team founded in 2015. Basically the Argentinean national team, the Jaguares finished second in the regular season, just 7 points behind the Crusaders. As such, they got to host the quarterfinals and the semifinals in the playoffs and made full use of that – beating the Chiefs 21-16 and demolishing the Brumbies 39-7 after a brilliant display.

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Team news & lineups:

The Crusaders have been dealth a blow by injuries to key players Ryan Crotty and Scott Barrett, while the Jaguares have no new relevant injuries.

Crusaders: 15. David Havili, 14. Sevu Reece, 13. Braydon Ennor, 12. Jack Goodhue, 11. George Bridge, 10. Richie Mo’unga, 9. Bryn Hall, 8. Kieran Read, 7. Matt Todd, 6. Whetukamokamo Douglas, 5. Sam Whitelock (c), 4. Mitchell Dunsha, 3. Owen Franks, 2. Codie Taylor, 1. Joe Moody

Jaguares: 15. Emiliano Boffelli, 14. Matias Moroni, 13. Matias Orlando, 12. Jeronimo de la Fuente (c), 11. Ramiro Moyano, 10. Joaquin Diaz Bonilla, 9. Tomas Cubelli, 8. Javier Ortega Desio, 7. Marcos Kremer, 6. Pablo Matera, 5. Tomas Lavanini, 4. Guido Petti, 3. Santiago Medrano, 2. Agustin Creevy, 1. Nahuel Tetaz Chaparro

The Jaguares are definitely on a high and had a marvelous season, and many people are tipping them to be real contenders in the Saturday final. But beating the Crusaders on the road seems as difficult of a challenge as you can get.

The Crusaders have not lost in Christchurch in the last 30 (!!) matches, winning 29 of them, and never lost there in the playoffs! They will also be eager to achieve a hattrick by winning the title for the third time in a row (and the 10th overall). It would be a historic achievement before some players retire after the World Cup, when there will also be big roster changes for all teams in the Super Rugby.

Despite all the hype surrounding the Jaguares, the Crusaders should win this game at home, and might well do it comfortably. They are the better team and are superior to the Jaguares in pretty much all statistical categories. But, more importantly, they have a huge advantage in experience. They are used to playing at this level, while the Jaguares will play by far their biggest game ever, in a hostile atmosphere where nobody ever won in the playoffs, against the two time reigning champions.

Look for the Crusaders to play their game and even raise it up a notch, as they usually do in the finals, while the Jaguares could get a bit flustered and make some errors – maybe even a yellow card or two given that they have a couple of known headcases in their squad.

My tip will be Crusaders to win and cover the 12,5 point handicap. You just can`t go against them in Christchurch. Prediction: Crusaders – Jaguares 35 – 14.

Pick: Crusaders -12,5
Odds: 1.88 @ 18Bet
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 7.04
Event date: 6 July

About Rostick

Former bookie & water polo player. Rugby Union expert. - EDITOR INFO & STATS
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