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CSKA Moscow will host Red Star Belgrade in the Europa League Round of Last 32 on Wednesday, after the two teams drew 0-0 in Serbia in what was a pretty uneventful first leg.
CSKA had a good showing in the first leg, despite not playing an official match since early December. The Russians held most of the possession and kept Crvena Zvezda in check for most of the game, doing that in front of a very hostile atmosphere at Stadion Rajko Mitic. CSKA is currently 5th in the Russian Premier League (which is on break), and is playing in this Europa League tie after finishing 3rd (with 9 points) in a Champions League group with Man United, Basel and Benfica.
Crvena Zvezda has been dominating the Serbian league with authority this season, posting an amazing statline of 19 wins, 3 draws and 1 loss in 23 matches, with a very impressive goal difference of 58-8. They rested most of their main guys over the weekend and still won 3-0 at home against Javor. Crvena Zvezda reached this stage of the Europa League by qualifying second from a group with Arsenal, Koln and BATE Borisov.
Bet on CSKA vs Crvena Zvezda and get your 100% (100 Eur) bonus at Ohmbet now!Team news & lineups:
Golovin will be out for CSKA, while Berezutski, Milanov and Schennikov are doubtful. Red Star will only miss Boakye.
CSKA Moscow: Akinfeev – Vasin, Berezutski, Ignashevich – Fernandes, Wernbloom, Natkho, Dzagoev, Kuchaev – Musa, Vitinho
Crvena Zvezda: Borjan – Stojkovic, Savic, Tallec, Rodic – Jovicic, Donald – Nabouhane, Krsticic, Radonjic – Pesic
CSKA Moscow was Red Star’s equal in Belgrade, in front of a crazy crowd, and with that being their first official match in more than 2 months. As such, logic says they should be the better team at home, and now having an official match under their belt this year.
However, Crvena Zvezda is having a really good season and the Serbians proved their worth away from home in this competition, claiming draws at Arsenal and BATE Borisov (both 0-0) and winning in Koln (1-0) in the group stages.
Crvena Zvezda’s defense has been stellar this season, both domestically (where they allowed 8 goals in 23 matches) and in Europe. They allowed just 2 goals in 6 games in the group stages, and none of them away from home. The Serbians have shown an excellent ability to defend effectively against stronger sides (both home and away), they proved it again in the first leg against CSKA, and that could be key in this reverse leg in Russia.
CSKA couldn`t break down Zvezda’s defense in the first leg, and could have problems doing so again, as the Russians are struggling big time offensively this season. CSKA has scored 28 goals in 20 games in Russia, which is a very low number for a team of their quality, and had real problems finding the net in their Winter friendlies (three 0-0 draws in six matches).
An exceptionally well organized Crvena Zvezda side should be able to frustrate an offensively challenged CSKA here, just like in the first leg, so a second uneventful meeting and another low scoring game could be on offer. The under is worth backing also because a potential early goal shouldn`t change much in terms of approach – if Zvezda scores they will park the bus with even more ferocity, while if CSKA scores, Zvezda will still play defensively (trying to avoid a second one, and hoping to get the vital away goal later in the match).
It`s also worth noting that -13° temperatures are expected at game time, and it is snowing in Moscow these days. While the pitch is of high quality and it should be in Ok conditions, these are still not the best circumstances for an entertaining game of football.
My tip here will be under 2,5 goals to be scored. To be honest I struggle to see how odds on this bet can be above 1.50 after analyzing all the stats and circumstances, as well as watching how these two teams play. It`s no surprise that the price is currently dropping. Prediction: CSKA Moscow – Crvena Zvezda 0-1.
Pick: under 2,5 goals
Odds: 1.59 @ Jetbull
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 4.72
Event date: 21 February
