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Mavericks – Grizzlies

Mavs Grizzlies NBA prediction

The Mavericks and the Grizzlies will square off in Dallas on Saturday night in the NBA.

The Mavs (27-34, 21-10 home) are coming after a solid 9 point home win against the Pacers three nights ago, a victory which ended a 5 game losing streak. Dallas has fallen out of playoff contention after making some trades last month having the next season in mind, but nevertheless the team is still competitive and puts in good performances pretty much every night. They have no reason to tank, since they don`t have their draft pick for next year (unless it falls into the Top 5, but that would be a small miracle).

The Grizzlies (24-39, 9-22 away) on the other hand are in full tank mode after trading Marc Gasol at the deadline. They lost 5 of their last 6 or, if you want to go further and highlight their long term form, they lost 17 out of their last 22 games! Last time out, Memphis lost at home to the Bulls.

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Team news: Dallas will continue to miss Barea and Porzingis, while Burke is highly questionable. Memphis has been dealt a blow with the injury to star rookie Jackson Jr, although that`s probably good for them, since the management wants to lose games. Anderson and Brooks are also out, while Rabb is listed as probable.

The Mavs haven`t done much winning lately, but the schedule wasn`t friendly to them, and all their recent losses came against playoff caliber teams – most of them close! Amazingly the only non-playoff team against which they lost in 2019 was the Lakers (on January 8th)!

The Mavs are excellent at home, their 21-10 win share being impressive for a team with just a 27-34 overall record. They tend to do the job consistently in Dallas against average and weak teams. They only suffered two bad losses at home all season, against the Knicks in November and against the Lakers in December January.

The Mavs are also one of the best ATS teams in the league. They are 3rd in the NBA with a 59% percentage of covering the spread, while Memphis is only 26th in this department, with a 43.5% percentage.

The Grizzlies are still a decent team which can get a few wins here and there, but all in all they are one of the weaker sides in the NBA right now (especially with Jackson JR going down). They are in tank mode, while the Mavs don`t have any real reason to tank, and are looking to develop their pieces for next season, when they are expected to be very good.

When you add the fact that Memphis is a poor road team (9-22), while Dallas, as stated above, is an excellent home team (21-10), it becomes pretty clear that the Mavs are heavy favorites here – probably heavier than odds suggest.

Dallas has done the job all season against weaker teams at the American Airlines Center, and that should be the case again today. They will be happy to finally get an easier game after a tough stretch, and will fancy their chances.

My tip will be the Mavs to win and cover the -4 (asian) handicap. To be fair I somehow managed to pick exactly the games in which the Mavs underperformed this season, and lost money on them overall (even though I was right about them being better than expected, as the ATS record proves). But hopefully this time things will go according to logic. If you can`t find the -4 handicap, I`d rather take the -3.5 at lower odds, or the straight win, as opposed to the riskier -4.5. Prediction: Dallas Mavericks – Memphis Grizzlies 111 – 100.

Pick: Mavs -4
Odds: 1.92 @ 1xBet
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 7.36
Event date: 3 March

About Rostick

Former bookie & water polo player. Rugby Union expert. - EDITOR INFO & STATS
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