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Mavericks – Blazers

Mavericks Blazers handicapping

The Mavericks will take on the Blazers on Tuesday night in Dallas.

The Mavs (11-10, 9-2 home) are riding high at the moment, winning 8 of their last 10 games and climbing into a playoff position. The improved roster formed over the Summer is finally clicking, and the Mavs look good value to make the postseason after a couple of grim years. Last time out, Dallas defeated the red hot Clippers 114-110 at home despite not having rookie of the year favorite Luka Doncic available.

The Blazers (13-10, 5-6 away) have not been in great form lately. Portland has lost 6 of its last 10 games, 5 of its last 6 and two in a row. Even their sole win in the previous 6 games was by their skin of their teeth at home against the Magic, needing 10 three pointers by Lillard to steal a close victory. As such, it is clear that there are some problems with the Blazers right now.

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Team news: Dallas has a lengthy injury list ahead of this game. Nowitzki is still out, while Doncic, Smith Jr, Barea, Kleber, Powell and Mejiri are questionable. However, all these guys are expected to play. The Blazers should be at full strength, the only question mark being about Turner (listed as probable).

The Mavs continue to be the best ATS team in the league, covering the spread in a remarkable 66,7% of their matches (14-7). This falls well in line with my pre-season prediction of them being underrated and a playoff contender.

Unfortunately, I have been very uninspired with the matches in which I chose to pick them, so we haven`t made much money together on the Mavs.

They might well be underrated again tonight, mainly because their injury list. However, from the 6 players which are listed as doubtful, only two seem to have serious chances to miss the game: Mejiri (irrelevant in the rotation) and Kleber (backup PF). As for Doncic, Smith Jr, Barea and Powell, all of them are highly probable. Even coach Carlisle said he expects them to play.

If the Mavs come into this match healthy they should be able to win it, as they are playing much better basketball than the Blazers right now, and at home they have been truly impressive: 9-2 record with 7 consecutive wins, including victories over top sides like the Thunder, Warriors, Celtics or Clippers.

My tip here is Dallas to cover the -1,5 handicap, which might get bigger once all their doubtful players are ruled fit. Hopefully there won`t be any surprises regarding the availability of those guys, but even in the unlikely scenario in which 1-2 of them will miss out, the Mavs could still pull it off (as they did in recent matches when missing 1-2 players). Prediction: Dallas Mavericks – Portland Trailblazers 117 – 107.

Pick: Mavericks -1,5
Odds: 1.92 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 7.36
Event date: 5 December

About Rostick

Former bookie & water polo player. Rugby Union expert. - EDITOR INFO & STATS
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