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Mavericks – Spurs



Dallas Mavericks San Antonio Spurs preview

An in form Spurs team will look to build on their good start of the season when they take on rivals Dallas on Tuesday night.

The Mavs (2-12, 1-6 home) are repeating the dreadful start they had last season, when they began 2-13, despite making it a clear objective at the start of the season to avoid falling in the same hole. With Nowitzki clearly past his prime at 39 years of age, and also struggling a bit with injuries, Dallas is definitely looking like one of the worst teams in the NBA right now.

The Spurs (8-5, 2-3 away) are having an excellent start considering the fact that their best player (Leonard) and their starting PG (Parker) are yet to play so far due to injuries. San Antonio’s role players have picked up the slack and are playing great in Popovich’s system, particularly recently – with Spurs winning 4 of their last 5 games. Offense has been terrific lately, only Golden State and Houston having a better offensive efficiency than San Antonio over the past 10 days.

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Team news: Dallas continues to miss McRoberts and Seth Curry, while Finley-Smith and Harris are questionable. San Antonio will still be without Parker and Leonard, but should get back Green, Lauvergne and Ginobilli, who sat out the last game. Ginobilli is highly expected to play, and chances are the other two should be deemed fit as well.

Bookies opened with a points total line around 201 points, which I find very low, and I`m not surprised it`s starting to go towards 202.

As previously said, the Spurs have been clicking big time on offense recently, posting the 3rd best offensive efficiency numbers in the league over the past 5 games, and scoring an average of 112 points per game during that stretch.

Now, Spurs will meet a Mavs team which is allowing 108 points per game and has the second worst defensive rating in the entire NBA. Naturally, you would expect Spurs to score somewhere around their recent average of 112 points here.

Mavs themselves are a decent offensive team considering their struggles (25th in offensive efficiency, scoring 100 PPG), their main weakness is defense (particulary with Nowitzki on the floor). Expect them to be fired up against their rivals and they should pass the 100 point mark here.

All in all I think this one will go over, and I believe the line should be close to 210 points. The current line standing at 201.5 points is very low in today’s NBA, you need two very slow teams to expect a match to end with less than 200 points. Neither Dallas nor San Antonio have such a slow rhythm. Out of the combined 27 matches these two teams played this season, only 9 ended with under 201,5 points.

My tip on this clash tonight is over 201,5 total points to be scored. Prediction: Dallas Mavericks – San Antonio Spurs 106 – 111.

Pick: over 201,5 points
Odds: 1.92 @ 18Bet
Stake: 9
Possible profit: 8.28
Event date: 15 November

About Rostick

Former bookie & water polo player. Rugby Union expert. – EDITOR INFO & STATS

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