Medvedev – Mahut

Nicolas Mahut will attempt to get his grass court season underway as he meets Daniil Medvedev in the ATP Queen’s first round.

Medvedev has a good run last week at Hertogenbosch, passing the qualifiers and reaching the quarterfinals (lost to Karlovic). It was a very good performance for Medvedev considering the fact that he was in a really bad spot, coming after 6 losses in a row. However, fact is that the players he beat were weak / out of form (Ram, Smyczek, Haase, Kokkinakis), and Karlovic destroyed him in the quarters, so his level didn`t get that much better.

Mahut is one of the best grass court specialists in the game, but he had a surprisingly poor start to the season with a second round exit at the hands of Benneteau last week in Hertogenbosch (after defeating Novikov in the first round). Mahut started that match with Benneteau well and it looked like it will be a routine win for him, but his game steadily broke down and eventually he lost in 3 sets … and that`s what he deserved.

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This will be the first meeting between the two players. The surface is a big advantage for Mahut here – he`s a true grass court expert, while Medvedev didn`t play much on grass in his short career. The Russian can play well on grass though, he has a 13-4 career win-loss record, albeit most victories came in qualifiers of ATP events.

Mahut hasn`t played well on clay and that seemed to affect his rhythm coming into the grass court season. He was poor last week in Hertogenbosch, but it`s hard to believe he will have a second bad week in a row. The last time he lost 2 consecutive matches on grass was in 2014!

This is Mahut’s best time of the year, he regularly wins tournaments prior to Wimbledon and I fully expect him to get his game back on track after his hiccup against Benneteau. Medvedev is a nice player, but if Mahut is even close to his optimal level, he should win this match. He`s just that good on grass.

A bet on Nicolas Mahut to win doesn`t offer particularly high odds, but I`m satisfied with the price – I think it could (should?) be even lower for the Frenchman. I reckon the bookies are putting a bit too much emphasys on Medvedev’s quarterfinal run last week and on Mahut’s rather poor showing that same week.

My tip is Nicolas Mahut to win. Prediction: Daniil Medvedev – Nicolas Mahut 4-6 4-6.

Pick: Mahut
Odds: 1.59 @ 1xBet
Stake: 9
Possible profit: 5.31
Event date: 20 June