Shapovalov – Mannarino

Denis Shapovalov and Adrian Mannarino will square off in a surprising Rogers Cup quarterfinal, and both players could feel that this will be the match of their life.

Shapovalov is on the back of a shock 3-6 6-4 7-6 win over Nadal, his second upset in a row after previously beating Del Potro in the second round. Reaching the quarterfinals has definitely been a surprise for Shapovalov. He did play well prior to Montreal, winning a challenger and reaching another challenger semifinal in his previous two tournaments – but on the other hand he almost got beat in the first round here, saving match points against Dutra Silva.

Adrian Mannarino has been solid on the North American hard so far, reaching the Los Cabos quarterfinals (lost in 3 sets to Berdych) and now reaching the Rogers Cup quarters. Mannarino played some very good and consistent tennis so far this week, winning all his three matches in stragith sets against Medvedev, Raonic and Chung.

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This will be the first H2H meeting between the two players. Both of them like hard courts, so the surface will not be an advantage or disadvantage for any of them. Shapovalov will feel he will have an edge due to being a Canadian and playing at home.

The young Shapovalov has been great this week, but he has to be said he did show weaknesses. His win against Nadal was a mix of Nadal not playing that great and Shapovalov managing to calibrate his forehand just right, hitting a lot of risky shots near the lines.

After claiming the win of his career, Shapovalov could suffer a letdown here, as it often happens to lower ranked guys after a big victory. It will be very difficult for him to continue playing the same way, and risking with aggressive shots might not pay off for a second night in a row. He also has to play less than 24 hours after an intense 3 hour marathon against Nadal. That win probably took a lot from him both mentally and physically.

The Canadian will face an experienced, in form player who will be ready to capitalize on any moment of weakness. Not only did Mannarino win all his matches in straight sets this week, but he won them in dominant fashion, all sets ending 6-4 or less – even against Raonic.

Even with Shapovalov playing his best tennis he might not be the favorite against this version of Mannarino, and when you add the big risk of Shapovalov suffering from “big win” hangover, betting on Mannarino starts to make a lot of sense.

My tip here is Mannarino to win. I expect him to be the more consistent player over the course of the match and make less mistakes, maybe also prove to be the fitter player if the match goes to distance. Prediction: Denis Shapovalov – Adrian Mannarino 7-6 4-6 2-6.

Pick: Mannarino
Odds: 1.69 @ 1xBet
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 5.52
Event date: 11 August