Shapovalov – Zverev

Local favorite Denis Shapovalov will take on Alexander Zverev in the Rogers Cup semifinals, with the bookies rating Zverev as a 1.20 odds favorite to win straight up.

Shapovalov had a truly magnificent tournament, defeating Dutra Silva (saved match points), Del Potro and Nadal in the first three rounds before maintaining his nerve to also get past Mannarino in the quarterfinals. Shapovalov started very poorly in the quarters against Mannarino, being unable to keep his shots under control, looking tired both physically and mentally – which was to be expected after his marathon against Nadal. Nevertheless, with the help of a rain delay which broke Mannarino`s rhythm, Shapovalov was able to dust himself off and come back for an excellent 2-6 6-3 6-4 victory.

Zverev has been almost flawless since Wimbledon, putting together a run of 8 consecutive wins on the American hard. The German won the title at Washington and continued the good run this week, as he got past Gasquet (2-1), Kyrgios (2-0) and Anderson (2-0) to reach the semifinals. Zverev is on the back of a solid performance against Anderson, keeping his cool to win in 2 sets and avoid any tiebreaks against the big serving South African.

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Shapovalov and Zverev have never met before on tour. Their styles are pretty similar, both being offensive baseliners. Also, both guys love hard courts, so the surface here in Montreal is neutral.

It`s hard to take any credit away from Shapovalov considering his miraculous road to the semifinals. He did play very well, but he showed weaknesses as well. He could have (should have) lost against Nadal in the 3rd round, and seemed on the brink of defeat against Mannarino as well in the semifinals. Shapovalov did well to fight back, but Mannarino also dropped his level and gave him a helping hand.

The young Canadian looked tired at times against Mannarino following his 3 hour marathon against Nadal, his aggressive shots and serve not working as well as in the previous rounds. He eventually came on top in another three setter, but that will only add to his potential fatigue.

Zverev has been very efficient in the last few weeks, playing with a lot of maturity, winning the important points and showing a high level of killer instinct. As a result of this, he won 9 of his last 11 matches in straight sets. Both of the sets he lost in this timespan were in opening matches, when he possibly didn`t push as hard.

Zverev is the better player and is in exceptional form, so he should definitely win this match against the young Shapovalov. The Canadian could snatch a set if manages to get in the zone for 30 minutes or so, that is a possibility, but it`s looking doubtful considering how consistent Zverev has been – and how he always seems able to come out on top in the important moments.

This being a Masters semifinal could add even more pressure on Shapovalov, while Zverev already won a Masters tournament this year and should feel much more comfortable.

My tip is Zverev to cover the 1,5 set handicap with a 9 unit stake on the bet. I reckon Shapovalov has done all he could do at this event, and he will finally succumb to pressure and fatigue against a better and more experienced player. Prediction: Denis Shapovalov – Alexander Zverev 5-7 2-6.

Pick: Zverev -1,5 set handicap
Odds: 1.65 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 9
Possible profit: 5.85
Event date: 12 August