Nuggets – Mavericks

The Denver Nuggets will host the Dallas Mavericks on Tuesday night in the NBA.

The Nuggets (20-9, 12-3 home) are having a magnificent season so far, sitting on the first place in the Western Conference. What is even more impressive is the fact that Denver is struggling with a pretty serious injury crisis right now, but is still able to win games. The Nuggets have now won three in a row, including a win over the mighty Raptors a couple of nights ago.

The Mavs (15-13, 2-10 away) are also having a good season, and the team will definitely be in the playoff hunt this season. Dallas has been really solid in the last few weeks, having a run of 13 wins in 15 games until recently. However, the Mavs have lost their last two games, both of which they could have (should have) won – at Phoenix and against Sacramento. The Mavs have also been very poor on the road (2-10 record), winning most of their games at home.

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Team news: The Nuggets will be without Millsap, Harris, Barton, Thomas, Porter Jr and Vanderbilt (the last 4 missing most / all of the season). Hernangomez is also questionable. The Mavs have Smith Jr, Barea and Kleber questionable.

Despite the (very) lengthy injury list, the Nuggets are still winning, and doing it pretty convincingly as well. This team obviously has great coaching, depth, and home court advantage alawys helps with the altitude in Denver. But most of all they still have their two best players, Jokic and Murray, who have been brilliant in the last few games when Millsap and Harris also fell victim to injuries.

Murray could be set for a big night here. The Canadian is averaging 17.5 points per game and in the last 4 matches (since all the injuries piled up) he scored 4, 16, 19 and 19 points.

The line for Murray tonight stands at 19.5 points, which might seem fair (or even high) based on the above numbers. However, I believe Murray could go well over this line against the Mavs.

First of all, Denver`s backcourt is decimated, so Murray has to carry most of the load. He played 38 minutes last time out against the Raptors, and a similar number of minutes could be expected this time around (since it`s unlikely the game will be a blowout).

There`s also the fact that Denver`s other main scorer, Jokic, will have a very difficult matchup against DeAndre Jordan, so Murray could be asked to carry even more of the load, and be the main scoring option. That is especially true since Murray`s matchups will be easier against guys like Doncic, Smith Jr or even Matthews – all of them average defenders.

All in all you would expect Murray to get at least the same number of shots like in the last few games, meaning around 15. If he shoots a bit better from deep (he shot 23% in the last 4 games), he should go over 19 points. But with Jokic going against Jordan, and with favorable matchups for Murray in the backcourt, he could get even more than 15 attempts and many good looks.

My tip is Jamal Murray to score over 19.5 points, I can see him finishing with about 25 here. Prediction: Denver Nuggets – Dallas Mavericks 110 – 105.

Pick: Murray over 19,5 points
Odds: 1.83 @ Betfair Sportsbook
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 6.64
Event date: 19 December