Nuggets – Spurs

The Denver Nuggets will host the San Antonio Spurs on Saturday night in a highly anticipated Game 7 of this Western Conference first round matchup.

The Nuggets (2nd seed) had an exceptional regular season to finish second in the West, but were disrespected by media members coming into the playoffs due to their lack of postseason experience. And indeed, it seemed like the Nuggets will fall apart after losing Game 1 at home and going down by almost 20 points to the Spurs in Game 2. However, the Nuggets rebounded and went 3-2 up in the series before losing (badly) a couple of nights ago in San Antonio in Game 6.

The Spurs (7th seed) surely felt that this series is theirs after stealing home court advantage by winning Game 1, but they couldn`t hold on to that, and now face a very difficult task in Denver. The Spurs will be confident after winning Game 6 by 17 points. But winning in Denver is a different proposition.

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Team news: Both teams are at full strength coming into this match. Only Porter Jr (Denver) and Murray (Spurs) are out, but neither of them has played this season.

The Nuggets are a 6 point favorite coming into this match, and you have to feel they deserve this status of favorites.

Denver has been outplayed by the Spurs in the first 6-7 quarters of this series, losing Game 1 and trailing by almost 20 points in the third quarter of Game 2 (both at home). However, they recovered, and have dominated the second part of this series. Yes, they lost Game 6 by 17 points a couple of nights ago, but San Antonio was at home, and the Nuggets knew they will have another chance to close them out. Also, the Nuggets shot very poorly from three, which is unlikely to happen again.

The Nuggets might not have playoff experience, but they are the second seed for a reason. They are unquestionably a better team than the Spurs and, equally important, they clearly took control of the series in the past three games. It`s like they needed a couple of games to shake off the playoffs nerves, and are now playing their best basketball.

Of course, the biggest argument for the Nuggets here is home court advantage. They have the best home court advantage in the entire NBA given the high altitude of Denver.

San Antonio’s win in Game 1 gave them the chance to win the series if they protected home court advantage, but they failed to do that, and now winning a second game in this tough Denver environment, against a better team, seems highly unlikely.

The -6 (asian) spread on the Nuggets seems tasty, but I`m giving the Spurs some respect here, their experience and coach Pop might allow them to stay in the game until late. Garbage time could also ruin the handicap bet if it` a 10 point game or so in the last couple of minutes. I`d rather take odds around 1.40 for the straight Denver win and risk higher stakes. Prediction: Denver Nuggets – San Antonio Spurs 111 – 104.

Pick: Nuggets
Odds: 1.43 @ Unibet
Stake: 10
Possible profit: 4.30
Event date: 28 April