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Argentine Diego Schwartzman is the 5th seed in the Argentina Open, while also being the second favorite to win the title according to bookies’ prices. He is the local player and crowd went crazy last night when he defeated Andreas Haider Maurer in the first round. For sure he will have the upper hand and all the cheering no matter who he will face this week.
Prior results at this tournament were not that great for Diego Schwartzman. He reached the Round 16 three times, last year being his best performance, when he took a set from Nishikori. But I don`t think that past results hold much relevance.
After easily beating Haider Maurer in his opening match, Schwartzman will now face Bellucci in the second round (who came back from a silent ban due to doping), a player he defeated last year 6-2 6-0 on Brazilan clay. A possible quarter final would be against Bedene or Ramos. He is leading Ramos 2-0 in the H2H (and 4-0 in sets), with both matches played on clay, so the match-up here shows clearly that DS isn’t really bothered by the lefty forehand of Ramos. Bedene on the other hand leads the H2H surprisingly 3-0 with Diego, but the last direct clash on clay was way back in Rio 2014. For sure Schwartzman should now be clear favorite in this possible match-up. The projected semi-final should be against Delbonis (against whom he won the last 2 meetings, both on clay) or Carreno-Busta (1-1 in H2H without any clay matches).
The final should be against top seed and bookies’ favorite, Dominic Thiem. He won this tournament back in 2016 when he had a hell of a week, winning against Carreno, Elias, Lajovic, Nadal and Almagro having won 4 out of 5 matches in 3 sets. Truly amazing! Last year he didn’t come to Argentina to defend his title. The H2H is in favor of Thiem (3-1), but Diego won their last match, on hard courts.
Schwartzman is my choice to win here in Buenos Aires due to the slow conditions here and his excellent stamina. He will clearly be the favorite in all clashes to the final and there he will have a word to say against Thiem or any other player.
Pick: Schwartzman to win ATP Buenos Aires
Odds: 5.50 @ Youwin
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 36
Event date: 18 February
