Dinamo – ACS Poli

Dinamo Bucharest and ACS Poli Timisoara will take the field in the Romanian League Cup final on Saturday, with Dinamo considered heavy favorites in a match they virtually play at home, at Bucharest’s National Arena.

This will be the last match of the season for Dinamo, who played the best football in Romania in the closing stages of the Liga 1 playoffs to earn a third place finish. The Red Dogs have a stat line of 5 wins and 2 draws in the last 7 matches they played, with both draws coming in matches they should have won. Last time out, Dinamo drew 1-1 with Astra in what quickly became a meaningless match, as Dinamo`s hopes to win the title were shattered early in the game by other results.

Unlike Dinamo, ACS Poli still has matches to play in the Romanian Liga 1 playout, where they are currently fighting for their lives. ACS Poli is heavily involved in the relegation battle, though they shouldn`t be, as they had to overcome a 14 point penalty at the start of the season (later cut to 7). Nevertheless, they are one of the worst teams in the country and their recent form hasn`t been good at all recently – 4 losses and 2 draws in the last 6 rounds. The visitors also had a Cup match midweek, which they lost 0-3 at home to Astra (1-7 aggregate).

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The League Cup is the least important competition in Romania, but it is one of the three yearly trophies in the country and it holds great value particularly for Dinamo. The Red Dogs are the second most successful club in Romania, but they haven`t won anything since 2012, making even a League Cup feel extremely valuable.

With this being the last match of the season for Dinamo, the club and fans are viewing it as a big match, expecting a trophy as a confirmation on the progress made this year and a sign of things to come. It has been expected with anticipation for some time now.

ACS Poli on the other hand is in a different situation, as their main objective is assuring Liga 1 safety. They have a huge match coming up midweek against Pandurii and coach Ionut Popa suggested that he will rest his main players in this final. While he is probably lying, fact is that ACS Poli is not viewing the League Cup as a priority, and they will probably mix their lineup a little bit.

Dinamo is the team in form here and plays this match at home. What`s more, the hosts are extremely motivated for their last match of the season, while ACS Poli is more concerned with avoiding relegation.

Looking at the difference in quality between the two teams and taking into account the circumstances, it`s hard to see ACS Poli even keeping this close. Dinamo won both previous meetings this season with the same 2-1 scoreline, but the circumstances were much more favorable to ACS Poli prior to both of those games.

My tip is Dinamo Bucharest to cover the 1 goal asian handicap. Odds are dropping and I expect the price on the handicap to be no higher than 1.45 at game time, so I am taking the bet early with max stakes – and I will be satisfied with this choice no matter how it pans out. Prediction: Dinamo Bucharest – ACS Poli Timisoara 3-0.

Pick: Dinamo (-1 Asian Handicap)
Odds: 1.56 @ 1xBet
Stake: 10
Possible profit: 5.60
Event date: 20 May