Thiem – Goffin

Thiem Goffin prediction London

A semifinal spot at the ATP World Tour finals will be up for grabs when Thiem and Goffin square off in the last round of the group stages, with the winner set to advance from Group Pete Sampras, while the loser will be knocked out.

Thiem has been solid so far in the competition, particularly when you take into account that indoor hard is not his best surface. The Austrian played a very close match with the in form Dimitrov, eventually losing 3-6 7-5 5-7, and followed that good performance with a three set win against Carreno Busta on Wednesday. Thiem wasn`t that great against the Spaniard, but played well overall and pulled off a key win.

David Goffin is coming after a heavy beating at the hands of Grigor Dimitrov, and it`s not just the 0-6 2-6 loss that is worrying for him. His biggest problem seems to be his fitness, as he clearly struggled with a knee injury against Dimitrov, apparently aggravating a smaller problem which he had in his first match against Nadal. Goffin pulled off a three set win against Rafa, mostly due to Nadal being injured himself (withdrawing from the competition after that match), but he was completley off pace against Dimitrov.

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Goffin leads the H2H 7-3 and seems to have a matchup advantage against Thiem, particularly on fast surfaces. Thiem has not won against Goffin against a surface other than clay, excluding one match in Marseille when Goffin retired in the first set. There have been two H2H meetings this year and Goffin won both, 3-1 at the Australian Open and 2-1 at Monte Carlo.

The matchup is a big advantage for Goffin here and, although most of his recent wins have been really close, it should be enough to make him a favorite in normal circumstances. However, Goffin’s fitness is a huge concern.

Against Dimitrov, the Belgian was clearly limited in movement, there were some balls he didn`t chase, and he had an average first serve speed of 165 km/h, which is disastrous.

If Goffin has managed to regain his health overnight (which is possible in today`s pro sports and he did look optimistic yesterday), he would be the favorite here, although not by much. However, that is unknown at best, and highly unlikely at worst.

What we do know is that Thiem is playing well, and Goffin is injured. He had an injury against Rafa, and the same injury looked much worse against Dimitrov. Facing a grinder like Thiem won`t help him – even if he owns the matchup, his knee will be heavily pressured by the long rallies Thiem will force him to play.

There`s clearly some good value on Thiem here, especially as he would have a decent shot even against a fully recuperated Goffin (which is a nice safety net to have). A fully fit Goffin would be favored due to the matchup and surface, but neither player was impressive in the months prior to these finals in London, Thiem played better overall this week, and he would definitely have a fighting chance. But of course, the main argument here is Goffin’s physical situation.

My tip is a Dominic Thiem win and I recommend taking this at a bookie which does not void bets in case of retirement, or where the bet stands if one set is completed. I`ll go with the second option due to the difference in odds. Prediction: Dominic Thiem – David Goffin 7-5 6-3.

Pick: Thiem
Odds: 1.92 @ 1xBet
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 7.36
Event date: 17 November

About Rostick

Born in '88. Running betting tips websites since 2007. Launched Betdistrict in 2013. Worked as a bookie for a year to spy on the other side. Rugby Union and NBA expert. Editor info & statistics.

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