Alvarez – Bute

Adopted Canadians Eleider Alvarez (Colombia) and Lucian Bute (Romania) will square off at Quebec’s Videotron Centre in a Light Heavyweight WBC title eliminator. The winner of the boxing fight is set to get a shot at the title against Adonis Stevenson. The bout will take place Friday night / Saturday morning (European time).

Alvarez (21-0-0, 10 KO) could have fought for the title a while ago, as he was the mandatory challenger, but he decided to get an extra payday against Bute, at the risk of losing his shot. It was a smart move, because Alvarez would have been destroyed by Stevenson with no chance of making serious money after that. Alvarez is a decent fighter, but nowhere near title winning material. He managed to win all his professional matches so far, but took advantage of weak opposition and was far from impressive in most of his fights. Last time out, he got an unimpressive decision against Dąbrowski (19-6-1) in February 2016.

Lucian Bute (32-3-1, 25 KO) will fight for the first time in 10 months, after he was suspended for a doping related incident following his draw with Super Middleweight champion Badou Jack in April. Bute managed to convince the anti doping authorities that he made an honest mistake, he has been cleared to fight and will look to continue what seemed to be a solid comeback.

The 37 year old Bute was the king in the Super Middleweight division until getting destroyed by Carl Froch back in 2012. He was never the same after that loss, but he did show a lot of improvement in his last two fights. Bute took on Supper Middleweight champions DeGale and Jack, being close to winning each of those fights. He lost a close one to DeGale (could have gone either way) and got a majority draw against Jack (Jack actually should have won that fight.)

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Bute stands at 187 cm with a reach of 183 cm and is a southpaw. Alvarez stands at 183 cm but has a 190 cm reach, so Bute might need to get inside in order to dominate the fight.

Alvarez is a mediocre fighter. A hard working and fit guy, but devoid of any real weapons and lacking punching power for a Light heavyweight. He never had a top class opponent and facing Bute will be the highlight and the toughest test of his career.

A prime Bute would make light work of Alvarez, as the Romanian is by far the better fighter between the two. However, it`s pretty clear that this is not the prime Bute anymore.

Nevertheless, Bute did box at a very high level in his last two fights against Super Middleweight champions James DeGale and Badou Jack, both of them top class fighters with much more quality than Alvarez. Despite dealing with the doping suspension, there has been less than a year since Bute’s last fight, so he should be relatively at the same level.

The biggest question mark for Bute is his ability at light heavyweight, as he`s more of a super middleweight and can have real problems against the power of heavier guys. That was obvious in his only match at this category a few years ago, when he seemed scared to let his hands go against Jean Pascal and lost a boring fight.

However, the good news for Bute is that Alvarez is not known as a power puncher.

It has to be said that the best thing for the officials, organizers and promoters would be a Bute win. A potential fight with Stevenson would be the biggest showdown in Canadian boxing and would draw huge money, much more than Stevenson – Alvarez would. As such, if the fight is close, the refs might be on Bute’s side and that is always worth taking into account in boxing.

I`m tempted to say Bute is actually the favorite here, but you can`t really know how sharp he will be and how he will behave himself at light heavyweight. Alvarez is not a top fighter, but he`s no bum and he will get the victory if Bute is not in good shape. But if Bute fights like he did in his last 2 bouts, he should definitely win this.

Fact is this looks like it could go either way and odds of 1.35 for Alvarez to win are simply crazy. There`s top value on Bute here and this is reflected in the fact that the odds on him are dropping. I don`t think the price will hold until Saturday morning (European time).

My tip is Lucian Bute to win the fight, great value and personally I think he has the arguments to pull it off. As an estimative prediction, I`d say Bute gets a KO in the second part of the bout.

Pick: Lucian Bute
Odds: 3.35 @ Betsafe
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 18.80
Event date: 25 February