England – Australia

The final rugby test match of the year will see two historic rivals, England and Australia, square off at Twickenham in a highly anticipated clash. It should prove to be a mouthwatering clash.

England‘s progress in the last year under Eddie Jones has been amazing. After a dreadful 2015 World Cup, England raised its game to new heights and established itself as the second best nation in World Rugby. The Three Lions are undefeated this year and will attempt in this match to become the only team in the world without a loss in 2016. In the November tests England defeated South Africa by 16 points, Fiji by 43 and Argentina by 13. It wasn`t all good and dandy by the English, as they did show weaknesses, but the last match against Argentina was pretty impressive – England had a player sent off in the 4th minute but still won rather comfortably with only 14 men. It`s true that Argentina completely collapsed physically in these November tests, but it was still a great win by England.

Australia is coming after a 3 point loss in Ireland in the closing stages of the game, but it was a very good game for the Australians, who had 2 players yellow carded (one right at the end), so they had to play key stretches of the match with a man down against an excellent team. It was the first loss for Australia in these Autumn Internationals, after they destroyed Wales by 24 points, beat Scotland by 1 point and an inspired France by 2 points. The Wallabies are looking pretty good right now after a poor start of the year – players coming back from injuries and smart adjustments helped them to finish 2nd in the Rugby Championship and to have a solid November in the Northern Hemipshere.

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Team news & lineups:

Both teams miss a crucial player each ahead of this clash. No.8 Billy Vunipola got injured for England against Argentina, while Australia will miss No.9 Will Genia, as he was not released by his club Stade Francais.

England: 15 Mike Brown, 14 Marland Yarde, 13 Jonathan Joseph, 12 Owen Farrell, 11 Jonny May, 10 George Ford, 9 Ben Youngs, 8 Nathan Hughes, 7 Tom Wood, 6 Chris Robshaw, 5 George Kruis, 4 Courtney Lawes, 3 Dan Cole, 2 Dylan Hartley (c), 1 Mako Vunipola

Australia: 15 Israel Folau, 14 Dane Haylett-Petty, 13 Tevita Kuridrani, 12 Reece Hodge, 11 Sefa Naivalu, 10 Bernard Foley, 9 Nick Phipps, 8 Lopeti Timani, 7 Michael Hooper, 6 David Pocock, 5 Rob Simmons, 4 Kane Douglas, 3 Sekope Kepu, 2 Stephen Moore, 1 Scott Sio

After Australia soundly beat England at Twickenham by 20 points in the 2015 World Cup, knocking them out of the group stage, the Three Lions took revenge this year, in the Summer Internationals. England won all three games played in Australia in May and June by a combined margin of 31 points! However, that was a totally different Australian team, ravaged by injuries and in a poor moment overall.

At this point England is starting to be seriously overhyped. Listen, this is a great side, second best in the World right now, but Australia is right there with them. England is not New Zealand, but they are consistently getting ridiculously low odds and large spreads to cover. It reminds me of last year’s world Cup match against Australia, when backing Australia at odds 2.25 was an easy win↗, as England was hugely overrated and didn’t deserve to be favorite.

Of course, this is a totally different game of rugby compared to last year’s World Cup (as it is compared to the Summer tests) and England fully deserves the favorite status. They play at home, they played less rugby recently so they should be fresh and when it`s all said and done they are a slightly better team than Australia. But they do have weaknesses, can have ‘dead’ moments in games and the handicap line being set at 9.5 points looks unreasonably high.

Both teams have been impressive last week. Australia should be confident after losing late by just 3 points against an Irish team that is comparable to England in terms of quality and level of play – particularly as the Australians played 12 minutes or so with a man down.

Australia’s lineup is looking really good ahead of this match and they should be able to match England in all aspects of the game, including the scrum and particularly on the wings, where the Wallabies might even have an edge.

One key advantage for the Australians will be in the rucks and at the breakdown. Australia is arguably the best team in the world when it comes to forcing turnovers at the breakdown (Pocock is absolutely elite) and England will miss a key man there in Billy Vunipola. I expect England to have a really hard time forcing turnovers, with Australia confidently keeping the ball after each carry. At the same time, the Wallabies could steal possession a few times and that would be huge in deciding the outcome of the game. Not to mention penalties being given to Australia at the breakdown if England struggles to release the ball.

One thing that might be a cause of concern for Australia is their fitness level. Australia played a lot of Rugby recently, having the Rugby Championship just a few months ago. We saw their rivals Argentina, South Africa and New Zealand all looking tired at times in these Autumn Internationals, not quite playing to their potential. However, it wasn`t exactly the case with the Wallabies, who showed a high level in their 4 November tests and often seemed even better at the end of games than their “fresh” European opponents (their good bench was a factor). Also, this being a massive game and the last of the year, I`m sure Australia will be ready for one final effort and the players will give everything they`ve got.

This should be an intense, physical game. England coach Eddie Jones himself stated that the Three Lions want to make this a physical contest and Australia won`t back down from that. That will likely translate in a game of penalties, with not too many tries on the cards. Obviously, this should mean a rather low scoring game, which is always an advantage for the underdog when it comes to covering a large handicap.

All in all, England will come into this match confident, they play at home and have been great this year, but not necessarily as brilliant as they are made out to be. Australia can definitely match them and holds a couple of key advantages like the breakdown situation. As long as Australia keeps their discipline and doesn`t concede too many penalties, they should be in with a shot to even win the game.

I expect this to be tight, with England scraping a narrow victory. My tip is Australia to cover the 9,5 point handicap. Odds are dropping and the point spread is moving towards 8.5, so you might want to take this bet before Saturday. Prediction: England – Australia 24 – 22.

Pick: Australia +9,5
Odds: 1.91 @ Slbet
Stake: 10
Possible profit: 9.10
Event date: 3 December