England – Australia

England Australia rugby world cup 2019 betting preview

England and Australia will square off on Saturday in the first Rugby World Cup 2019 quarterfinal at the Oita Bank Dome.

England came into the World Cup in great form, and indeed the Red Rose has not disappointed in the group stage. England cruised against Tonga (35-3), USA (45-7) and Argentina (39-10), showing improvement with each game that passed. The English had their last group game against France cancelled, so they will come into this match having not played in two weeks. Normally that should be a good thing, although potential loss of rhythm could be a worry.

It`s fair to say Australia has not played a single complete solid game so far in the RWC, and to be honest that doesn`t come as a huge surprise. Australian rugby has not been in the finest spot for the last couple of years. The Wallabies did have moments of brilliance, but overall their performance in the group stages was average at best. They had to fight much harder than the score suggests for a 39-21 victory over Fiji, lost 25-29 to Wales and were unimpressive against minnows Uruguay (45-10) and Georgia (27-8).

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Team news & lineups:

The biggest surprise for either side in terms of team selection is Michael Cheika’s decision to hand 19 year old Jordan Petaia a shock start, and in a very difficult position as well (outside center). England opted to bench George Ford. Otherwise, the two teams will line up pretty much as expected.

England: 15 Elliot Daly, 14 Anthony Watson, 13 Henry Slade, 12 Manu Tuilagi, 11 Jonny May, 10 Owen Farrell (c), 9 Ben Youngs, 8 Billy Vunipola, 7 Sam Underhill, 6 Tom Curry, 5 Courtney Lawes, 4 Maro Itoje, 3 Kyle Sinckler, 2 Jamie George, 1 Mako Vunipola

Australia: 15 Kurtley Beale, 14 Reece Hodge, 13 Jordan Petaia, 12 Samu Kerevi, 11 Marika Koroibete, 10 Christian Lealiifano, 9 Will Genia, 8 Isi Naisarani, 7 Michael Hooper (c), 6 David Pocock, 5 Rory Arnold, 4 Izack Rodda, 3 Allan Alaalatoa, 2 Tolu Latu, 1 Scott Sio

Australia hasn`t covered the spread in 3 of the 4 group games, and when they covered against Fiji, it was rather circumstantial, as that match was a lot closer than the 39-21 score indicates.

Fact is that the Australians haven`t played very well in this tournament, and haven`t played very well in quite a while, with the sole exception of a win against New Zealand in the Rugby Championship this year. The level of talent in the squad is not what is used to be, and the exclusion of their best player Israel Folau (for a religious and arguably homophobic instagram post) did not help.

What`s worse for Australia, not only do they have to face a stronger, in form team here, but they have to face a team which had their number big time recently.

England won all six H2H meetings since the previous World Cup (three home, three away), and won them by an average margin of exactly 15 points. It has been utter domination by England recently, and the Wallabies just couldn`t figure them out.

Look for England to be stronger (Petaia`s start at No.13 for Australia could seriously backfire), more disciplined and more cohesive all around. It`s what we saw from these teams not only in this World Cup, but in the past few years as well. Both place kicking and goal kicking will also be (much) better for England, putting Australia on the back foot and under pressure.

England is simply put the better team, and their matchup against Australia is very favorable for them. It`s hard to see in what way could the Wallabies get the upper hand in this clash.

The rest factor should also work in England’s favor. On paper you could argue that the Red Rose could be a bit rust after two weeks, but in such a physically taxing tournament, chances are the rest will be an advantage.

Conditions will be fine for rugby. Weather might be rainy, but the Oita Stadium has a roof, so that won`t be an issue.

Taking everything into account, you have to feel that England will advance here, and the 8,5 handicap seems within their reach as well. Australia obviously remains a talented squad and on their best day they can turn the tables, but there`s nothing to indicate their best day could come this Saturday – aside from the randomness of sports, of course.

My tip will be England to win by more than 8,5 points. Prediction: England – Australia 30 – 15.

Pick: England -8,5
Odds: 1.98 @ Sbobet
Stake: 10
Possible profit: 9.80
Event date: 19 October

About Rostick

Born in '88. Running betting tips websites since 2007. Launched Betdistrict in 2013. Worked as a bookie for a year to spy on the other side. Rugby Union and NBA expert. Editor info & statistics.

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