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The Italians will try to avoid a historic blowout when they face England at Twickenham as a 43 point underdog, in the third round of the 2017 Six Nations.
England will seek to win the 17th test match in a row, as they are going for a second consecutive Six Nations title (and maybe Grand Slam), while also eyeing New Zealand’s fresh record of 19 wins in a row. They can also tie the record for most consecutive Six Nations wins (10). The Three Lions have been brilliant under Eddie Jones in the last 18 months or so and navigated skilfully trough two very difficult games to open their 2017 Six Nations campaign, beating France by 3 and Wales by 5. England can definitely play better, but they were solid in the two games so far and stepped it up when it counted, showing character and confidence.
Italy continues to prove they are not deserving of competing in the Six Nations, putting in another dreadful performance in their last match to lose by 53 points against Ireland at home. The last year has been dreadful for the Italians who went from bad to worse, with the only bright light being a very lucky and shocking home win in November against another team in disarray, South Africa. This version of Italy is simply not good enough and they have taken steps back in the last years, instead of improving, as they were expected to do.
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The English (who get back Marko Vunipola) will field all their top guys, with Joseph being the only one left out. They don`t have reasons to mix it up, as they had the last weekend off and will have the next weekend off as well. Italy will make 4 changes to the side that got embarrassed by Ireland.
England: 15 Mike Brown, 14 Jonny May, 13 Ben Te’o, 12 Owen Farrell, 11 Elliot Daly, 10 George Ford, 9 Danny Care, 8 Nathan Hughes, 7 James Haskell, 6 Maro Itoje, 5 Courtney Lawes, 4 Joe Launchbury, 3 Dan Cole, 2 Dylan Hartley (c), 1 Joe Marler
Italy: 15 Edoardo Padovani, 14 Giulio Bisegni, 13 Michele Campagnaro, 12 Luke McLean, 11 Giovanbattista Venditti, 10 Tommaso Allan, 9 Edoardo Gori, 8 Sergio Parisse (c), 7 Simone Favaro, 6 Abraham Steyn, 5 Andries Van Schalkwyk, 4 Marco Fuser, 3 Lorenzo Cittadini, 2 Leonardo Ghiraldini, 1 Andrea Lovotti
Italy is dirt poor at the moment and they have no business competing in the Six Nations against the likes of England. They belong in the Rugby Europe Championship with Georgia (who might be better than Italy) and Romania, but they are still producing money for the Six Nations – so for the time being they will stay here, despite being destroyed week in week out.
It`s going from bad to worse right now for the Italians and it might all unravel against a fantastic English team at Twickenham, with a record breaking win being very possible.
Expect Italy to struggle to create anything offensively against a brilliant English defense and the Azzuri might well fail to score a try. England also has great discipline, so do not expect Italy to be awarded many penalties. The Italians might be kept in the 0-6 points range in this match.
Wales, New Zealand or Ireland showed in the last year that you can put 9-10 tries on this Italy team, home or away, and England at home is more than capable of doing the same – or even better. It all comes down to how much England wants a big win and if they will keep up the pressure after securing the bonus point with 4 tries.
I don`t see England treating this match lightly and chances are they will try to score as much as they can. The Three Lions had 2 very difficult matches in the first two rounds of the Six Nations and will relish being able to play their game without pressure against a poor Italy. They had last weekend off and will have the next weekend off as well, so they can put in full effort without any consequences. England also wants to keep the momentum going and would love a big win in front of their home crowd in order to improve morale, even if it`s already high.
The English lineup is also very promising, the Three Lions will field their best starting XV and that speaks volumes about their intentions for this game.
A 43 point handicap may seem high, but unless Italy has a rare game in which they perform way above their means, it could get ugly pretty quickly. The Italians lost by 53 points to Ireland last round and a weakened New Zealand team beat them by 58 late last year. Both those matches were in Rome, where Italy is traditionally much stronger. England won by 31 in Rome last year against a better Italy team and England has improved since then.
Expect free flowing rugby from the hosts and a destruction of the hopeless Italians, particularly in the last 20 minutes or so, when Italy`s poor bench will take the field. I believe the point spread is well within England’s capabilities, so I`ll bet on them to cover.
I don`t see this as a maximum stakes bet as it wouldn`t be shocking if England wins by only 35-40 – but I think a 50-60 point win is more likely, so will invest high stakes on game. 8-9 units would be my recommendation. My tip is England -43,5 points. Prediction: England – Italy 66 – 6.
LATER EDIT: The weather is expected to be a bit harsh come game time, as it will probably rain and it might be a little windy. The pitch will be in good condition. I don`t think the weather will have an impact in such a one sided clash. There might be a bit more handling errors for both sides, but also some more missed tackles by Italy. England knows very well how to play in these conditions.
Pick: England -43,5
Odds: 1.96 @ 1xBet
Stake: 9
Possible profit: 8.64
Event date: 26 February
