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Excelsior Rotterdam hosts PSV Eindhoven in the 32nd round of the Dutch Eredivisie.
Excelsior’s recent horrible form saw them drop from a safe place to just 3 points over relegation zone … hosts have only 2 points in the last 7 matches, losing 5 of them … they did not even have such a tough schedule and in 4 of the losses allowed at least 3 goals. The bad run is even worse at home where Excelsior has 2 draws and 4 losses in the last 6 outings. Last round was a 1-1 draw at Cambuur with Cambuur equalizing in the last second … Excelsior was close to get the win, but to have barely over 30% possession at Cambuur says a lot. For today the hosts will not have Vermeulen, Damen and Bruins in the lineup.
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PSV won the title after the 4-1 win over Hereenveen last round. PSV had the title on lock for quite some time but that did not stop them to perform admirably in the recent matches … the last 3 games were won with a 12-2 goal difference against teams like Twente, Zwolle or Hereenveen, good teams of Eredivisie. Visitors are playing their best football at the moment and despite the celebration party after the title, coach Phillip Cocu is set to field his best lineup today except for Jozefzoon and Arias, who are unavailable. Cocu said he wants his players to perform until the end and did not allow massive celebrations after the win last week.
Motivation is very important in football and often times makes the difference … but also very often it is overestimated and creates big value in the odds. Even if Excelsior needs the points and PSV does not, visitors are one class above and they proved in the last three rounds what they can do without pressure. PSV’s attacking free flowing game can be even more dangerous when there is no pressure involved, the likes of Depay will have a field day when they know they don’t have to play so much defense.
Excelsior is in really poor form at the moment and I think they will take a beating by PSV … my tip is PSV to win and cover a 1 goal asian handicap. Visitors covered the 1 goal handicap in 8 of their last 9 wins. At home PSV won the meeting 3-0 without pushing too much that day. Correct score prediction: Excelsior – PSV 0-3.
Pick: PSV (-1 Asian Handicap)
Odds: 1.84 @ Sbobet
Stake: 9
Possible profit: 7.56
Event date: 25 April
